Research On The Game Theoretical Model Of Passenger Traffic Sharing Between High-Speed Railway And Civil Aviation

With the continuous improvement of China's integrated transport corridor and the construction of large scale high speed railways, China will be able to break the bottleneck in passenger transport. Passengers'increasing choices of transportation modes intensifies competition in this market. All kind of transport modes provider have to solve the problems of adjusting to market demands and increasing their own competitiveness. Analyzing the distribution of passenger volume between high speed railways and civil aviation is highly relevant to improving transportation efficiency, optimizing resource allocation and providing convenience to passengers.Based on the general condition of passenger transportation in China's integrated transport corridor and data collected from field surveys, this thesis analyzes the characteristics of passenger flow from three perspectives:factors leading to differences between demand and supply, factors determining demand and external environment. Passengers are divided into ticket-price sensitive, speed sensitive and other three categories. Then, five weight coefficients of passengers are established by using analytic hierarchy process with five indicators concerning price, speed, comfort, safety and convenience. With the goal of maximizing social interests, this thesis applies knowledge of game theory to establish a game theoretic model of passenger volume distribution. Then, the model is simplified based on the practical situation of transportation market to prove the existence of Nash equilibrium in Bayes Model. Besides, the concept of passengers' time value is introduced to reflect travelling efficiency by measuring the speed, comfort and convenience by indicators of time.In the case study,this paper compares the high speed railway and civil aviation in a couple of two ODs(Zhengzhou-Xian, Wuhan-Guangzhou).Based on transport strategies of the two, the thesis provides the distribution of passenger flow between the two. As a result, the analysis of Zhengzhou-Xi'an Railway is closer to the real situation, which proves that the model is practical. In the case study of Wuhan-Guangzhou OD, passenger volume of high speed railway is smaller than that of civil aviation, which suggests that there is huge room of improvement for the operating strategy of Wuhan-Guangzhou high speed railway. Finally, to adjust ticket price, the thesis calculates passengers'sensitive intervals for ticket prices to provide advices as to how to improve the operating strategies of Wuhan-Guangzhou high speed railway.