The Analysis About The Impact Of The High-Speed Railway Operation On Civil Aviation

The high-speed railway develops rapidly in China, which eases the phenomenon that the passengers are less than the demand and also has a great impact to the air transport industry. Because of the high-speed rail lines that have been operating, passenger traffic of civil aviation industry has a huge loss, resulting the flights into reduce and certain routes of some airlines into stop. More large-scale high-speed rail line will soon be operational along with the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway open to traffic one after another. What kind of impact will civil aviation have in such a strong percussion, and how to reform civil aviation in the face of these affect, which are all need to be studied in this paper.First, the factors affecting passenger travel behavior are analyzed in this paper. Refer to the two modes of transportation, civil aviation and high-speed railways, different impact of different factors is proposed in this paper based on the characteristics of the means of transportation, such as different travel distance, the purpose, the income and so on.Secondly, the comparative analysis between the existing and new model of forecasting the passenger-sharing rate is given. Then, Logit model is chosen to calculate the sharing rate of high-speed railway and air passenger traffic, after which the calibration of BL model parameters is proposed.Thirdly, according to the model need, the questionnaire is designed based on the disaggregate model. And then, the survey has been done in some cities of Beijing and Shanghai along the high-speed railway. Based on the findings, the survey data is analyzed qualitatively in order to determine the choice of the travelers who has different needs in this section between the high-speed railway and civil aviation.Then, the influence which the open of high-speed railway has on civil aviation is analyzed with qualitative and quantitative method. While it is qualitative analysis, the operational institution of civil aviation is analyzed compared to which after the high-speed railway was open, using some examples such as Japanese Shinkansen. French TGV, China’s Shi-Tai high-speed railway and Wu-Guang high-speed railway. Then, the degree of the influence that the high-speed railway has on civil aviation is analyzed in different transport time while the reason of the influences is being studied. In allusion to the quantitative analysis of china’s Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway section, this paper calibrates the characteristics of the utility function using TransC AD software with Logit model method to insure the sharing institution of high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger in the section of Beijing-Shanghai channel.Finally, according to this study, the total impacts of the high-speed railways have on civil aviation are summarized in different distance and operational time, and some constructive ideas are put forward to develop civil aviation well in the future.