Research In Continuing Operations Of The Basic Old-age Insurance For Urban Workers Based On System-dynamics

At this stage, China is faced with a more severe test of aging population, comparedwith other countries, aging population in China with is more rapid, lack of accumulation.In response to the deepening of the aging trend, we need to protect the elderlypopulation living standards, China should further improve the basic old-age insurancesystem. As of the end of2009, the basic pension insurance participants to reach apopulation of235million, which receive their pensions to reach5806.9million, thepresent paying population can support pension benefits of the pension population, butthe old-age insurance for urban workers facing increasing pressure of population aging,restructuring of the implicit debt, the fund investment is not yet mature, the appropriateregulatory regime is not perfect and other issues. To this end, in the necessaryassumptions condition, the paper calculate the insured population and the retiredpopulation forecast which from2010to2039, and applicate the theory of systemdynamics, simulation operating conditions of Basic Old-age Insurance for UrbanWorkers from2010to2039, finally draw the system predict conclusion.In the years2010to2039, the elderly population gradually disappeared before2034, the paper no longer calculate the number of elderly population since2034; retiredpopulation increases every year since2009, reached its highest point in2029to about8147million human number, and gradually decreased since2029; new retiredpopulation as early retire in2029and increase year by year. With the pace of economicdevelopment changes, average annual wage level in growing year by year, the averageannual pension for the elderly, while the new with the continuous improvement of thelevel of economic development and the consumer price index increased year by year, the annual average wage replacement rate were maintained at58.5%,41%, and38.5%.on this basis, the paper drawn the conclusion that in the model the basic pensioninsurance fund income and expenditure to predict the period has been showing agrowing trend to co-ordinate fund after2010to2030, nearly two decades of growthafter the peak, began to decline around2036, the fund shows a negative state.Model-based predictions, China’s basic pension insurance fund in2037will be theplight of income over expenditure in this regard, this paper will give some suggestions.Firstly expand pension coverage, increase insurance rates, to speed up theimplementation of China’s basic policy to expand pension coverage, change the status ofthe fragmentation of old-age insurance, to attract more flexible employment population,individual businesses to participate in the Basic Old-age Insurance for Urban Workers.Secondly, the use of funds and scientific investment approach to improve the operatingefficiency of the pension insurance fund, in order to maintain and increase value-added.Thirdly make reasonable adjustment of the statutory retirement age, but the reform ofthe retirement age for employment have some impact at this stage, the reform need acomprehensive consideration, sub-groups to adjust the retired way. Ensure retireesnormative strengthen the assessment of audit on retired and prevent falsification retiredphenomenon. Finally, establish the Operations of Pension Fund’s monitoring and EarlyWarning Mechanisms, which is essential for long-term healthy development of thepension insurance fund. To develop early warning model in detail, and set up thescientific measurement of the operational status of the pension insurance fund in theMechanisms.