Reliability Analysis Of Supply Chain System Based On Markov

Under the background of economic globalization, the competition of developedinformation technology in the market is more fierce than the traditional market, the competitionamong enterprises has been gradually transformed into the competition between supply chains, thecore competitiveness of the supply chain performance as the ability of mutual cooperation inenterprise members to resist the risk event. However, in the market which is gradually opening up,the changeable between enterprises’ cooperation, the uncertainty of demand variability, thecontradiction of business objectives, business’ complexity and contradiction of trade barriers,political factors and natural disasters, which made the supply chain reliability under great threaten.It has the important theoretical and practical significance to research the reliability of supply chainsystem.In this paper, based on the analysis of the supply chain process and function, based on the reliabilitytheory, then establish supply chain model among two buyers, two producers, one distributors andone retailers, the risk events of weather, personnel, equipment, technical are analyzed in the supplychain system, then construct the system state transfer diagram, establishing and solve thedifferential equation, by using Markov, probability analysis, Laplace transform, the supplementaryvariable method for normal system,4kinds of abnormal,9fault conditions of time, frequency,number of reliability index, considere the supply chain system returns, repair costs costs, list theprofit functions of supply chain system, at the end of the paper, give an example to verify themodel’s reliability, and put forward advices to the supply chain system.