Optimization Of The Diesel Sales Strategies

This paper takes diesel (wholesale) prices and sales (the day) of a province of China National Petroleum Corporation as the research object. At the same time considers the international oil prices, the average price rate of three areas, the diesel sales price of China Petroleum&Chemical Group as the main factors that will influence diesel sales. We combine the actual situation in diesel sales market and take econometric model as the foundation, construct a diesel "sales-price" model. Through the analysis of this model, we can not only get quantitative relationship between the change of diesel sales price and diesel sales volume,but also establish an optimal diesel sales strategy model with the diesel "sales-price" model as constraint conditions and enabling the company’s diesel benefit largest as an objective function. Mean while a feasible set including all sales strategies is made, sales strategy that will enable the company’s diesel benefit largest in different market environment is also constituted. The main work of this paper is as follows:(1) First based on the average price rate of three areas, we divide the market into different conditions, once the condition is determined, we then construct diesel "sales-price" model by using econometric software based on the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) model and the multiple regression model, we choose the change of diesel sales as dependent variable, the change of international oil prices, the competitor’s sales price and earlier diesel sales as independent variables, then we test the model’s feasibility and rationality by calculating the related statistical indicators and drawing residual graphics. we also give quantitative analysis between independent variables and diesel sales.(2) Through the analysis of diesel "sales-price" model, we can not only get quantitative relationship between the change of diesel sales price and diesel sales volume, but also establish an optimal diesel sales strategy model(DSM) which has the diesel "sales-price" model as constraint conditions and the maximization of the province’s diesel sales profit as an objective function. Then we make a feasible set that includes all sales strategies. By defining price increase strategy set Ur and price reduction strategy set Ud, we can constitute sales strategy which enable the company’s diesel benefit largest whenever the international oil prices of the three areas is risen or fallen.