Supplier Selection In Make-to-order Environment With Delay Risks

Since the beginning of the21st century, purchasing management optimization theory and method proposed for deterministic environment is difficult to adapt to the increasingly unstable business environment with the markedly accelerated pace of our country’s enter-prises, the gradual form of the global supply chain network which is relied on by the operating process, the growing complexity of the business environment and the significantly increasing risk of operation. More and more researchers begin to commit to the study of supply chain under the uncertain environment, meanwhile they produced many representative academic achievements. This thesis studies the supplier selection problem in make-to-order environ-ment with risks on the basis of existing methods.The study of this thesis is divided into four chapters as follows:Chapter1mainly presents three aspects content which respectively are background, Study dynamic at home and abroad and brief introduction of VaR and CVaR.In chapter2, focusing on the complexity of vendor selection problem in the face of uncertain situation, and random delay period which may be encountered in the procure-ment process, the method of continuous random variable discretion is applied to solve the combination of different suppliers’delay period as a combination of all suppliers’delay pe-riod so that the number of combinations is reduced. Using convolution formula, the density function of sum of random variables which follow exponential distribution is proved with the same parameter and different parameters, and the delay costs under these situations are respectively estimated with the use of conditional expectation.In chapter3we apply single objective mixed integer programs for supplier selection in make-to-order environment with delay risks to establish two models which respectively are SP-E model and SP-CV model. The target of SP-E model is to minimize the expected cost of each part, while the aim of the SP-CV model is to minimize the expected worst-case costs with use of VaR and CVaR.Finally, numerical example is presented, applying Cplex solver to explaining the models established in the chapter3, and explaining the calculated results. The model proposed in this paper is helpful for decider to select the suppliers.