The Analysis Of Factors Affecting Housing Prices In Shanghai

The commercial housing sales area had increased by nearly 10 times from 121.85 million square meters in 1998 to 1.11304 billion square meters in 2012 since government cancelled the welfare housing distribution in1998.Since than, the real estate development investment increased fastly. On the one hand, people’s housing conditions improved continuously, which the average housing area square had increased from 18.7 m2 to 32.9 m2, having risen by as much as 76%. On the other hand, lots of people cannot affort a house, which brings some social problems.Firstly, this paper analyses the market of commercial housing by theory.Secondly, analyses the problem using the related data which selected from 2003 to 2013 in shanghai. It figure that housing price increases accompanying with the amount of people, GDP, consumer price index and so on!Again, using qualitative analysis method on the influence factors of housing price in Shanghai. Based on multivariate linear regression models and factor analysis model to study the effects on the various factors. Results showed that: the top 3 main ingredients contains 98.95% information of price. Among them, resident population, production total, residents consumption price index, the average housing area of town residents, the average consumption spending of city residents, the rate of urbanization, the average cost of house, the index of land price have a positive effect on housing price, the square of housing completed has a negative effect on housing price. Furthermore, the top 3 main factors are the index of land price, the index of consumer price and the average square of housing for urban residents. Finally, using the second fitting grey Markov model predict the price of commercial housing in the following three years in Shanghai.The results show that: the second fitting grey Markov model has a better accuracy compared to GM(1,1).What’s More, the average price of commercial housing in 2014,2015,2016 are 18044 Yuan/square meter, 19780 Yuan/square meter, 22062 Yuan/square meter.Research indicated that the Shanghai ratio of housing price to income is too high, in the next few years Shanghai still faced with the trend of rising prices.The government in formulating public policies should focus on the following five aspects: Firstly, reform the land using system and increase the land supply;Secondly, strengthen public housing supply management;Thirdly, reform the property tax and appropriately increased tenure link taxes;Fourthly, solving the local government financial difficulties to reduce dependence on land;Finally widen the channel of the capital investment.This article attempts to analysis commercial housing residential markets in Shanghai for some suggestions. Using multivariate linear regression model and the factor model to identify the main factors affecting prices. Using the improved grey Markov model predict the future house price, and hoping the research will give suggestions to government to control the real estate market.