The Study On The Effect Of The Household Bounded Rationality Decision-Making About Land Use Behavior

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the frontier research in the current global environmental change. It is a useful way to explore LUCC micro behaviour mechanism by revealing dynamic feedback relationship between physical environment and human activities. LUCC can directly reflect the human activities. On the natural basis to clarify the mechanism of the behavior of human behavior change has become an important pots for the land use research. The land-use of household behavior and the development of rural resources use landscape pattern are becoming more and more closer. Undoubtedly, Household who as an agent of the rural socio-economic and land-use behavior in decision-making has becoming a significant impacts on land use and landscape pattern of agricultural land. Through the bounded rationality decision-making can influence the household land-use behavior of factors, It is precisely make reasonable explanation in the appearance of irrational behavior. Providing a reference for the realization of household optimal land use decision-making under bounded rationality, and thus the regulation of household land use decision and optimization of the agricultural landscape pattern has important theoretical and practical significance.Firstly, analyzes the household performance of the bounded rational decision-making in the study area. By constructing the difference between the rational optimal decision-making and actual decision-making to reflect the response of bounded rationality. The number of households or agengt compared to expression typical of the study area bounded rationality in decision-making. The variables Models provide the basis choice of the follow-up impact factor; Secondly, respectively through natural and environmental risks, policies, land endowments, behavioral satisfaction, Space land information and many economic social information to express and analyze household land use decisions impact factors.It can be the foundation for the subsequent simulation and prediction; Finally, by constructing multi-scale farmers decision-making model, simulate agent land use behavior to predict agricultural land use change trend,analysis the impact of agents decisions on land use change. Through the above analysis.the following conclusions above on: (1) The study area of household land use decision-making bounded rationality performance significantly and typical. Gao Xi-gou Village of A, B, two types of households choose three crops, the EV rational optimum ratio is41.3%and36.5%. A, B, C, three types of farmers to select three crops the EV rational optimal ratio is7.69%,10.6%and20%, Actual research found that the rotation of the two villages and the majority proportion of hybrid of agents decision-making does not follow the principle of maximizing the return, but based on the principle of satisfaction of the many internal and external driving factors limit. The type of the actual farmers planted crops and the rational selection of optimal planting the number of households and proportion of differences is significant.(2) The household land use decisions affect on the study of the factors, and provides an important basis for the model factor selection Statistical mathematics, the DCM model, probit model, multiple linear regression model method to calculate many other variables affect the direction and extent of decision-making behavior of peasant households. The conclusion of typical impact factors is:natural factors:Gao Xi-gou Village dry climate (86.6%); Jang Xing-zhuang Village of serious pests and diseases (70.9%); market to avoid:a variety of crop rotation (45.7%,20.3%); Abandoned policy:industry level (6.499), the gradient of the arable land proportion in more than25°(9.698); farmers satisfaction behavior:agricultural activities income (0.78,0.65), the cultivated area (-0.62,-0.56), family farmland area (-0.42,0.41); land elements:the overall state of land quality (0.284,0.153), land irrigation conditions (-0.101,0.161), the degree of land fragmentation (-0.287).(3) The househole bounded rational land-use decision-making model simulation and prediction. Build the appropriate sample area househole bounded rational decision-making model to simulate the2011agents land use decisions, and forecast2012land use of the correspondence between the spatial distribution of the number and parcel of arable land type farmers. The Gao Xi-gou household as a whole mistakes in the plot of the total land of9.58%; Jing Xing-Zhuang9.11%; which the method of modeling can better reflect the farmers land use decision-making mechanism.Among two studies areas of land rotation hybrid behavior, Potato area in the various types of Gao Xi-gou arable land is still the most important.The dominant area in Jing Xing-Zhuang Village is onion, The dominant species in the dominant crop type inter-annual variation is not an area of nearly three years have been declining, household land use subjective preferences and risk aversion on crop selection can not be ignored.