The Study Of Sustainable Land Use Based On System Dynamics In Liuzhou City

With the high-speed development of social economy, the contradiction between man and land is becoming increasingly prominent. The fact now is that land resource can not meet the needs of social economic growth due to its limitation. It has become an import theme in today’s social development that how to coordinate the relationship between man and land to realize regional sustainable development. Liuzhou is an important industrial city in Guangxi Province and its rapid expansion in industry has led to high-speed economic growth and urbanization increasing continuously in recent years. However along with the increasing of industrialization and urbanization, the natural resources and environmental capacity is now facing with severe test. Therefore, for adjusting the industrial structure of Liuzhou City and realizing the coordinated growth of population, economy, land, natural resources and environment, it’s an important significance both in theory and reality to explore a reasonable land use structure.This article is based on the land use data of1996-2009in Liuzhou city and learns the situation of increase and decrease in land use pattern by using the dynamic model to analysis dynamic changes of various land of Liuzhou during the14years. By using PCA(principle componet analysis) to research the influencing factors of causing dynamic changes of land use in Liuzhou city, it is known that the main facotrs are population growth, economic development and resources environment condition. And among the three, economic development is the one that has most important influence on land structure change of Liuzhou.In base of research about dynamic changes of land use in Liuzhou and its main influencing factors, and considering the current development situation and industry dominated characteristic of Liuzhou, the biggest problem related to resource and environment problem is the energy consumption and the environmental contamination causing by industry. For now the control of carbon emissions has become the hotspot issue in environment problems, and it’s also a research issue closely related to energy consumption. This article takes energy and carbon emission as the representative factors of resource and environment to discuss the feedback mechanism and causality of land, population, economy, energy and carbon emission in sustainable land use system. And it also makes a dynamic model of sustainable land use system in Liuzhou and simulates this system by using software Vensim PLE in this article.According to the development situation and possible policy guidings of Liuzhou, this article selects5controlled variables and combines them in different levels to engender4scenarios. By simulating these scenarios and evaluating the simulation results and the influences that the controlled variables have on land use change, this article finds that only when it’s in condition of strengthening forest land conservation, increasing technology efficiency, and adjusting energy use structure and industrial structure, all the indexes in sustainable land use system will be in a more reasonable range. Meanwhile the land use structure will also be more reasonable and all the subsystems can develop coordinately. So this is a relatively optimal development pattern.In the end, according to the scenario simulating results, this article proposes some measures relative to realizing sustainable land use in Liuzhou, which can be references for making future development policy of Liuzhou city.