Urban Construction Land Prediction Research Based On Computable General Quilibrium Model

It can promote the optimized allocation of land resource that byselecting a science scientific urban construction land demand forecastmethod to town construction land in the future a period of time inside ofgrowth forecast, so as to promote the development of the macro socialeconomic whole totally. And from the micro level and a team in awhole economic system in future research a period of time within theurban social economy of town in all use the land for constructiondemand, for planners and decision-makers to provide more reliable andmore intuitive prediction results make planning more strategic, science,practicality and operationality, and a real for economic and socialdevelopment macro-control role, rise to land management of "leadingrole’’.This paper mainly divided into three parts: the first part is thebackground and theory analysis, including chapter1,2. Part one firstlyintroduces the background and significance, and then make a summaryof the content, at last puts forward this the research method, the train ofthought, the framework and the possible innovation; The second part isdata processing and model building, including chapters3and4.According to the purpose of the article, subdivision out of the townconstruction land consolidation activities and town construction landoutput of goods account, and consider to take the land royalities inSAM for accounting, and balance the SAM by the cross entropy.Depend on the balance of SAM, established the general equilibriummodel of Nanning urban construction land computable, the model addthe town construction to land consolidation for distinguishing thedifference from the model of traditional equations CGE. In order topredict the future urban construction land demand of Nanning, and themodel add the prospective recursive dynamic equations. The third partis the solution of the model and analysis the results, including5and6chapters. This part introduces the solution of the model, the universaltool mathematical Modeling System (Generalized Algebraic ModelingSystem, GAMS) and the features and the development of steps, thenintroduces the main computing process as well. Then analyze the resultsof simulation, and apply in the Nanning City Land Use Planning(2006-2020),in which simply analyse the land for industrial and miningtown of new index, The last part (chapter7)make a conclusion for thepaper and look forward to future research direction.