Risk Analysis And Avoid When Power Grid Company Conduct The Project Of Large Users Direct Electricity Purchasing

Since the late1980s, Electric power industry system reform sweeping the globe,Europe and America and other western developed countries has lifted the electric power industry control measures. The deregulation of electric power industry has broken the traditional vertical monopoly utilities that supply electricity to customers within their franchised areas of service, Instead of market operation mode of electric power industry and it make the market members facing unprecedented huge risks. For example,Large users direct electricity purchasing has broken the monopoly situation that power grid company(PGC) is a "single purchaser" in the power generation side,Market risk so increase. It’s very important for power grid company that analysis the market risk that large users direct electricity purchasing project implementation brought about grid companies, and take effective measures for risk aversion and management.Based on the analysis of the current large users direct electricity purchasing application status and risk management,introduced the basic concepts of risk management. Through the risk identification we analysised the risk of PGC due to the direct electricity purchasing in terms of policy risks, power system risks and market operational risks. Analyzed the relationship between these risks and rectification measures.Secondly, it analyses the characteristics of several risk assessment methods, such as Variance、Value at Risk (VaR). According to modern portfolio theory (MPT), risk control models and benefit evaluation for PGC based on E-CVaR and EVA(Economic Value Added) are proposed. It’s effectiveness is verified by formul.The relevant theoretical analysis and numerical tests are given. Finally, a framework based on risk control and risk assessment is proposed, which can help PGC to estimate its trading strategies and help it reach the expected profit maximization,market risk minimization...