| Since the end of the20th century, with the process of industrialization and urbanization, China has entered a period of rapid urbanization, which brought the urban population increased dramatically, the rapid expansion of urban area, urban issues have become increasingly prominen, making urban space have gradually become a risk accumulation places, derived from the various series of "spatial conflict", and threaten to the region efficient development and security. This article draws on the natural disaster risk estimation models, build a risk estimation models of space conflict, and the space conflict prewarning framework and strategies from the perspective of economics, it has important theoretical and practical significance to understand the main problem and spatial characteristics of the process of regional urbanization, and regulate the spatial conflict organically.Taking the theories of spatial scarcity, social conflict, game theory, the spatial club convergence theory as guid, with the help of Matlab, SPSS, DPS and ArcGIS, this article draws on the concept of spatial conflict, manifestation, the cause and the dynamic mechanism from the perspective of economics.At the same time, taking references to the disaster risk evaluation and prewarning mechanism, this article analyze the risk evaluation connotation of spatial conflict, scale, conceptual framework, the evaluation method and prewaming in discussion. At last, this article quantitatively measures the level of spatial conflict risk and the prewarning-related research.Research results can be conducted as the following:(1) From the perspective of economics, the space is the social product, which has particular value. Spatial conflict is an objective socio-economic phenomenon, which is due to the scarcity of space resources, embodied by the spatial value of the spillover and spatial value socialization is not fair, and it has four types:economic convergence, segmentation and block of the space economy,spatial imbalance of economic developmen, space deprived, which has different positive and negative impacts on economic and social.(2) The cause of the spatial conflict owned by the internal and external incentives for the actors, and the incentives of the presence of make it as possible, while the power is excited elements of the space conflict. Spatial conflict dynamic is inconsistent based on the effectiveness of space stakeholders, between stakeholders pursuit of their own economic interests or other interests to maximize, and the effectiveness of the greater space, the greater the impetus to the creation of spatial conflict.(3) The risk of spatial conflict and the spatial security is an inverse relationship, that is, the larger the risk of spatial conflict, the more unsafe space, and vice versa. Learn from the disaster risk principles, the risk of spatial conflict is also four aspects, that is the risks dangerous, persistent, the vulnerability of risk and the recovery.Based on the index system of risk modeling and evaluation methods, this article builds the index system and evaluation method, from the above four aspects.At the same time, in accordance with the process of risk perwarning, we build the fuzzy artificial neural network-based model for perwarning.(4) The results of Changzhutan measurement on the risk of spatial conflict, is the risk level of the present spatial conflict overall rising from2000to2010, but the increase is not obvious. And the risk of the spatial conflict in three urban conflicts is higher than other districts. Taking0.25,0.45,0.70,0.85as five kinds of signal warning degrees point, based on the matlab software, using fuzzy artificial neural network of prewarning model, measure changzhugtan areas in the prewarning.Overal, the spatial conflict value is mostly at risk of middle and light range in changzhutan areas, and the risk of the current spatial conflict can control.Alarm in the area mainly including Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan city and the surrounding at the three city.Light police areas mainly include Xiangxiang, Shaoshan, Liuyang, Liling, YouXian, Chaling and Yanling. |
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