Research On Risk Decision-making For Real Estate Enterprises Based On Bayesian Model

In recent years, real estate industry has a rapid development in China, which has become a basic industry in our country economic system. But there are also some problems, such as excessive investment, projects focus and other phenomena. But it is very dangerous for real estate industry, which has a huge investment amount, which is implicated a wide range of industries and which would not recover the investment quickly. For the problem, it is necessary to do some research about risk decision in project.We introduced the risk theory and analysed the risk in the real estate business investment by using a combined method of theoretical analysis and practical verification. Then we gave the weight of various factors, combined mathematical theory and formula. So we established a Bayes risk decision model. At the end of the article, we use the model to analyse the real estate investment projects in Zibo City and we validate the scientificity, practical applicability. Drawbacks and limitations of Bayes risk decision-making method in real estate investment are analyzed. Conclusion is drawn that,with the development in real estate investment market and introduction of new theories and techniques, the method proposed can be developed and perfected continuously, accompanied with increase of its applicability.