A Study On The EWS Of The Debt Crisis In Emerging Market

With the rapid development of the global economy,the relationship between countries have strengthened and the investment that cross a state rises apparently. At present, the emerging market countries have become more and more important to the global economy. However, several economic crises happened during the last three decades have caused great damage to the global economy system. So many economists now focus on how to build an efficient mathematical model to predict the crises before it breaks out. Because of several reasons many papers just focus on the models about the currency crises. Another important kind of economic crises is ignored, that is debt crises. However, with the development of technique it is much easier now to study the debt crises.This paper takes emerging markets as the research subject. We collected560samples and divided them into2groups. We also collected some economic indicators that can reflect the debt position of these emerging markets.Then we try to deal with the study of how to establish the Artificial neural network model to predict the debt crises before it happens.After the simulation we found the BP neural network performed excellently on this problem.we also analyzed the reason why the self-organizing competitive network performed poorly.