Study On The Trade Imbalances Of Textile Industry Of China And Early Warning Mechanism From Industrial Security Perspective

After the rapid development of nearly three decades, the textile industry of Chinahas strong competitiveness over the world.At the same time,with the perennial tradesurplus are the lower industry profit, trade friction and tension in international traderelations. The U.S. subprime crisis broke out in2008, it has a tremendous impact onthe global economy. The textile industry of China face exports is blocked, and theother countries in order to protect their own industries, take many kinds of barriers totrade.The rade environment of our national textile industry is becoming worse.In this paper, on the basis of international trade theory, the industrial securitytheory and early warning theory, the“Ternary Marginal Model”and“The CMS Model”are used to conduct the structural effects and economic effects of tradeimbalances.And then it explores the security status of our national textile industryunder the trade imbalance. Results show that: Number imbalance causes the tradeimbalances of our national textile, the affect of price and breadth of the balance arenegative.That is, the trade surplus is made up with the number of surplus，the breadthdeficit and the price deficit, but the contribution of them is different.The numberimbalance makes the largest contribution, the contribution of the breadth and priceimbalance is smaller. The trade imbalances CMS model of our national textileindustry shows that since2008, the "import demand effect "," export competitivenesseffect "and the" structure of cross-effect "of our national textile industry in the U.S.,EU and Japan market decline with varying degrees.The impact of international marketdemand, size and structure of demand is significantly to the textile industry of China,so "import demand effect " drops rapidly，the impact of other effects are relativelysmall.Through the establishment of our national textile industry, it finds that thesafety of our national textile industry is "basically safe" state under the tradeimbalance.So there are many problems affectting the development of the textileindustry of China. Combined with the preceding analysis, from the perspective of industrial safety itbulids the evaluation system of the trade imbalance about the textile industry of China.Based on the Extension Element model,it builds the early warning mechanism of thetrade imbalances of the textile industry of China.And then it assesses the imbalancelevel, and estimates the trade imbalances of the textile industry of China.The resultsshowed that: the trade imbalances of the Chinese textile industry in2010is "in thepolice state.During2000-2010，this situation is gradually deteriorating. Analyzed thereasons of trade imbalances of the Chinese textile industry quantitatively andqualitatively, We find that the root cause of the trade imbalance of Chinese textileindustry is determined by our processing-based trade, and the direct cause of theChinese textile industry trade imbalance is the industry characteristics of the textileindustry: labor-intensive, profit margins and small-scale that fit the current stage ofeconomic development. All of them make the trade of our national textile industrysurplus gradually increased,and trade imbalances have become increasingly serious.The paper pointed out the problems of the textile industry of China in thedevelopment process, and then it analyses the reasons of trade imbalance.，and then itbuilds the early warning mechanism of the trade imbalances of the textile industry ofChina.We hope that can provide a reference to achieve industrial upgrading andsustainable development of our national textile industry.