Research On The Trade Friction Effect And Early Warning Mechanism Of Rubber Products Based On Industry Safety

With the continuous development of the world economy and scientifictechnology, the rubber and its relative products are increasingly becoming importantmaterials that people cannot live without. However, the same with the developingtrend, the anti-dumping, intellectual property barrier and technical barriers set up bythe importing countries are increasing, too. By researching on China’s rubber exporttrade frictions, analyzing its working mechanism and the adverse effects onmacroeconomic and safety arising from the domestic industry, this article proposedthe establishment of early warning mechanisms, and provided proper countermeasures.It has a certain theoretical and practical significance for reducing rubber productsexport trade friction.Based on the trade friction, industry safety and early warning theories, this paperanalyzed the impact to the domestic industry safety from rubber products tradefriction. Then this article used econometric model analyzing macroeconomic effectsof Sino-US rubber trade friction. The results showed that both physical and humancapital can promote China’s GDP, which is with each additional unit of the former one,the gross domestic product will be increased by0.08percentage, with each additionalunit of the latter one, GDP will be increased by0.54percentage. While there is anobvious negative correlation between trade friction and GDP which is with eachadditional unit of Sino-US trade friction on rubber products, China’s GDP will bereduced by0.01percentages. Although this number is not huge, because of the largerbase of our economy, even with a little increase of trade frictions, China’s economywill suffer a lot.Then this paper proposed the establishment of trade friction early warningmechanism to deal with the export of our rubber products. According to the categoriesof trade barriers，this article set the early warning indicator system and used thesurvey results and AHP to determine the weight of each index. Looking at the weightof index we can find that the export volume of rubber products, export prices andproduction, sales volume and sales prices are on the domestic rate of change inexports of rubber products a greater impact, the weights are larger than0.1, whichexport volume and rate of change the greatest impact, reaching0.1811; in addition,the market concentration, export goods in the importing country’s market share andgrowth rate and unemployment importing rubber products industry’s share of theweight of these three indicators are also higher than in0.06, especially in the exportmarket concentration, reaching0.0996.This paper concludes with suggestions on dealing with trade frictions. First of all,the government should purify rubber export market, and active use of WTO tradedispute settlement mechanism. Second, the industry associations should coordinatethe relationship between enterprises and the government, and provide information for consulting. Third, enterprises should diversify production, develop new markets andimprove technology.