Research Of Influence Factors Of Carbon Emission Under Different Economic Growth Pattern

With the industrialization and urbanization of the world, the global economy is developing fast, and all kinds of energy have been consumped extensively, carbon emissions is rising continuely too. Since China is in the period of developing fast, and the main energy consumped is coal, carbon emissions are in the top of the world. So it becomes an important topic for12-5planning to save energy and reduce CO2emissions, at the same time, maintain the steady development of our economics.The emissions of carbon are closely related to ecomoics and energy. The theory backgroud of these are based on economy-energy-environment (3E) system. Initially3E system was in the form of one dimentional system, and turned to be a complete system after the problems between energy and economics became serious in the1900s. There have been a large number of literatures which have studied this problem throughly. Recently, the research of carbon emissions becomes important and hot. But there are still lack of researching in the view of the pattern of economics growth and the structure of industry, but it’s important to discuss the carbob emission with the two concerns.This paper goes from the backgroud of3E theory, investigate the relationship between economic growth, emergy consumption and carbon emissions. The paths of the paper are following.First, a panel granger causality test is using to detect the relationships of economic growth, emergy consumption and carbon emissions, and find out whether there is a one-way or two-way transmission mechanism. The empirial result shows that both economic growth and energy consumption, and economic growth and carbon emissions have two-way granger causality.Second, goes further after the first part. We decompose the corbon emissions into five parts, carbon intensity, energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure and output. Then, according to the charateristics of the data between1994 and2008, this paper uses LMDI method to divide them again into five periods. Finally, decomposing the carbon emissions again with LMDI, explore the main influencing factors of emissions under different way of economic growth.Based on the analysis above, the papers gives general steps for energy saving and emission reduction, and suggesions for defferent growth parrerns are proposed.1."Low efficiency+low output" stage, lots of energy is imput, but the speed of economic growth is reduced. This means that the input and output are not in a good circulation. So, on the one hand, it’s required to improve the production method, introduce advanced technology and develop clean energy, in order to improve the energy efficiency. On the other hand, it’s also needed to keep the speed of the economic growth.2."Low efficiency and high yields" stage, even though the economy is developing fast, the low production efficiency, energy wasting problems can’t be ignored. At this point, it will be good to slow down the speed, and focus on efficiency improvement.3."High efficiency and low output" stage, the emission will be reduced, and it’s valuable for balancing emissions and economic development. Primarily, production technology should be improved, clean technologies be developped, slowwing down the development of high energy-consumption industy and developping new clean energy are been done secondarily, so as to make the economic, energy and environment coordinately developped.4."High efficiency+yield stage" the production efficiency and output are improved well. But this kind of high efficiency and high yields don’t mean the best production status, because under the conditions of which technology innovation aren’t accomplished, high yields still will bring carbon emissions growth. Low carbon energy strategy must continue to be effectively implemented.There are two main innovations. The first one is, almost all the other reseachers analysis the period nearly sujectively, and divide the period just for one year or a few years. This papre are more objective. The second one is that, there are lack of researching through exloring the relationship beween the pattern of economics growth and the structure of industry. Based on this point of view, based on different develop pattern, our paper investigate the contribution of carbon emission are made by agriculture, industry,construction and so on, discover the influence of energy intensity and structure.Of course, there are also some disadvantages of this paper. First, the result of the panel data model may not robust, due to the little sample size. Second, the paper only give advices about coordinate development of agricultural, industry, construction, but how to coordinate the internal structure of these industries are not discussed, this part will be discussed in our next paper.