| Finance lease is one form of finance as the same as bank credit, direct financing, trust, insurance. It has its own characteristics and advantages in boosting social investment, accelerating technological progress, promoting growth in consumption, improving the financial markets and optimizing the financing structure,and now it has become the third largest means of financing only after the capital markets, bank credit in the international. The time of the introduction of finance lease in china is1981, but because of the late start of the financial leasing industry and the weak control of risk in finance lease, the financial leasing penetration is still low now. However, after20years development, China’s financial leasing industry beginning to show importance in the national economy, its rate of contribution to GDP has increased annually. Financial leasing industry holds many development opportunities and large room for growth. With the gradual improvement of the social and policy environment of leasing industry as well as regulators gradually attach importance to it, financial leasing industry is currently in a good period of development. At the same time, the finance lease risk management has increasingly become an important aspect for the finance leasing companies to improve profitability and competitiveness. In this article finance lease risk refers to the risks faced by the lessor.When finance lease company make decision, if the risk the company will face is too small, it will cause waste of resources due to the use of capital is not sufficient; if the risk the company will face is too high, the corporate may loss due to the risk of the loss is greater than income. Therefore it is crucial to find the match point of the risk level and business development. To find the match point of the risk level and business development, first, you need identify risk systematically, globally and dynamically, and second, you could measure and evaluate these risks comprehensively and scientifically.Contrary to the risk identification, the second chapter defined financial leasing business, and on this basis analysis of the generation mechanisms of lease risk and risk categories. The risk of finance lease come from many interrelated uncertainties, these factors include the inherent characteristics of the finance leasing and the external environment characteristics. A typical finance lease project involved at least three parties and two contracts, the lessor and lessee is a kind of long-term (3-5years) credit relationship, the finance lease subject matter involved may produce the commodity-related risks. Interest rates Market-oriented, imperfect of regulation about taxes and laws, the narrow channels for the lease contract and lease asset securitization all can induce risk. Therefore, financial leasing companies face the risk from the lessee, suppliers, investors, its own management, external regulation, market changes, technological progress and so on.In this thesis, we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risks of financial leasing companies. The third chapter and the forth chapter make a detailed discussion on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the risk, and these two chapters are the core content of this thesis. Using this method, we need to establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and to establish model the first need to do is bringing together risk factors of finance leases. On the basis of the identification of finance leasing enterprise risk in the second chapter, the third chapter focuses on the establishment of the risk evaluation index system of finance lease enterprise. CAMELS evaluation method is relatively mature in financial risk evaluation in our country, Therefore, this article refer CAMELS analysis method to build the finance leasing enterprise risk index system, and combined with China’s actual situation amend the original CAMELS evaluation method, on the basis of original CAMELS evaluation method added business operating environment indicators. Ultimately formed an index system which include operating environment, capital adequacy, asset quality, management ability, profitability, asset liquidity and market sensitivity. To broken down each level indicator, it formed a secondary index system which consists of20indicators.The fourth chapter of this thesis mainly researched the establishment and application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The first section introduces the definition, characteristics and the use of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process. On the basis of the risk evaluation index system set up in the third chapter, section II first use of the AHP to determine the weights of indicators at all levels. In the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation process, the weight values determined will directly affect the role played by the various factors in the evaluation process, it has an important impact on evaluation results. When use the AHP to determine the weight of each index, the relative importance of value of every factor are the majority of the expert survey results. Section Ⅲ mainly researched the establishment of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the risk of finance leasing companies, this process involves the establishment of the index set,the judge set and the single factor evaluation matrix, and, finally, researched comprehensive evaluation method step by step. On the basis of the weights and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, Section IV used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the risk of Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. as a sample instance, and verify that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is effective. In the evaluation process of the risk of Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., the establishment of the single factor evaluation matrix used expert survey again. From the final evaluation results,., the score of the overall level of risk of Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co. Ltd is2.783, the overall risk level is low, there isn’t big risk in the course of business. The evaluation result conform the actual risk situation of Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co,.Ltd and verify the effectiveness of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Although the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can quantified the risk, it is different from the Logistic model and VaR risk measurement methods that can only measure credit risk or interest rate, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for risk evaluation is a comprehensive evaluation method, not only can evaluate the risk of risk factors such as capital adequacy ratio and asset quality, but also can evaluate the level of risk faced by the entire enterprise, even be used to make horizontal comparison throughout the financial leasing industry. We can say that fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is a method of empirical evaluation in both microscopic field and macroscopic field. In this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model not only explore various factors affecting the enterprise risk in-depth, but also verify its effectiveness in the case, all these provide a risk assessment method for managers of finance leasing companies and the industry regulator.The authors believe that the finance leasing companies risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model which is built up based on the risk mechanism and identification of finance lease is valuable, and both the risk assessment index system and comprehensive evaluation model are innovative. But limited to the lack of the ability and practical experience, this study is imperfect, especially the exploration of the finance lease risk factors need to be further deepened and the applicability of the CAMELS system in the non-banking department finance leasing companies and the applicability of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the risk management all needs to be further clarified. |
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