| Since the real estate industry occupies an important position in the national economy,and the real estate prices largely represent the development status of the real estate market and the degree of stability,the research on the real estate price has always been the focus of scholars at home and abroad.From the 1980s,foreign scholars began to deal with correlation between the interregional changes of the house prices,which is the ripple effect referred to in this article.That is,house prices in a region have changed and ripples like falling water on a calm lake.Moreover,this change will transfer to other regions.So,when it comes to the changes among house prices in the first-tier city,second-tier city and third-tier city,is there any ripple effect?If there is any ripple effect,what is the structure?How does the changes of house price go through the ripple effect among cities?When different cities formulate policies on the basis of the ripple effect,should they take the same measures?Based on these doubts,the ripple effect of the real estate price will be studied in this paper.After reviewing the development of real estate in our country,this article analyzes the characteristics of regional house price,duality and investment hedging.Then it analyzes the mechanism of ripple effect and the factors which affect the price changes.On this basis,we establish the minimum spanning tree to study the structure of the ripple effect of housing price changes in the first,second and third tier cities of China,and conduct a comparative analysis before and after the financial crisis.In addition,the cities in China are divided into three sub-markets of the first,second and third-tier cities.By means of vector autoregressive model,the conduction path of changes of the real estate prices within and among sub-markets is analyzed,including the direction,intensity and speed of conduction.Finally,we will take the city which is the center of ripple effect as the research object,establish the system moment estimation model and the variable coefficient model to discuss the influencing factors of the house price change,and then find that there are huge differences in factors of the real estate price in different cities.Specifically,the conclusion of this article is as follows:There exists ripple effect of price changes obviously in Chinese major cities,and it becomes more closely after the financial crisis;in China,the ripple effect of real estate price changes are divided into three levels:the first level is Shanghai,Tianjin and Nanjing,the second level is Shanghai,Tianjin and Nanjing prices change led to changes of housing prices in the sub center city house price changes like Qingdao,Nanchang,Ningbo,Yangzhou and Xuzhou,the third level is the price changes driven by the sub center city passed to other cities;in the study of influencing factors,expectation and the increase of population density can significantly improve the real estate price in large and medium-sized cities in our country.The results of this research have practical significance.It will provide ideas for the government to regulate the real estate market not only in choosing first city to start,but also seeking the entry point of policy. |
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