A Study On The Agricultural Comprehensive Production Capacity Of Hubei Province

Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is defined as the stable output capability resulting from the agricultural inputs in the certain time period and certain social and economic environment. Agricultural comprehensive production capacity building is the key to revolutionizing agricultural productivity, relieving destruction of natural disaster, avoiding market risks, raising land productivity, enhancing competitiveness of agricultural products and increasing farmers' income.Calculating and evaluating results show that the agricultural comprehensive production capacity of Hubei province increased in the research period, though not steadily. Unbalance does exist among cropping, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and agriculture brings less and less income to farmers.In the production function of agriculture, the elasticity of labor, capital and land is -1.4862, 0.2819 and 0.506 respectively, and the contribution rate of the three factors to the growth rate of agricultural output value reaches 36.58%, 59.98% and-7.06% each. Hubei agricultural sector needs to decrease the number of labors, increase capital, especially fixed asset investment, and control the fast decreasing trend of agricultural land.In the research period, SFA agricultural technical efficiencies of 17 regions bettered, but their placing order remains unchanged. DEA agricultural technical efficiencies of CRS, VRS and Scale are greater than 0.9. DEA agricultural technical efficiencies are greater than the ones of SFA, but the two are closely related. Hubei agricultural TFP change, technology progress and technical efficiency change arrives 3.6%, 2.9% and 0.6% separately. Agricultural TFP highly depends on technology progress. In agricultural technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency plays a more important role than scale efficiency.Due to poorly proportioned input structure, fiscal support to agriculture has little effects on agricultural output value in the current and lag-one period. The negative elasticity of agricultural loan to farmers' income is also because of its poor structure. Farmers of Hubei province receive little financial service with high cost and narrow choices.Analysis shows Shiyan, Enshi, Xiangfan, Yichang, Shennongjia, Xianning, Suizhou, Jingmen and Huanggang have a cropping production comparative advantage over the other regions. Xianning, Shennongjia, Shiyan, Huanggang, Huangshi, Enshi, Suizhou, Xiangfan and Xiaogan have a forestry production comparative advantage. Regions having an animal husbandry production comparative advantage are Shennongjia, Enshi, Xiaogan, Suizhou, Tianmen, Xiangfan, Yichang and Qianjiang. Regions having a fishery production comparative advantage are Ezhou, Jingzhou, Xiantao, Qianjiang, Huangshi, Wuhan, Xiaogan, Jingrnen, Tianmen and Huanggang.Production unbalance of agriculture and cropping among the 17 regions relieved, but the unbalance trend of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery remains unclear.Entity fixed effects regression model of agriculture shows spatial pattern of regions has a trivial positive effect on agriculture in Wuhan, Shiyan, Suizhou, Jingrnen, Xiantao, and Tianmen, a medium positive effect in Yichang, Xiangfan, Enshi and Huanggang, but it contributes greatly to agriculture in Jingzhou, Xiaogan, contributes negatively in Huangshi, Qianjiang, Ezhou and Shennongjia.Time fixed effects regression model of agriculture reveals that the macro-environment favored agriculture in a low degree in 1999-2004 and the institutional effect of "socialist new countryside construction" policy needs further observation.Impulse response function analysis shows that output value of cropping, forestry and animal husbandry responds its own one standard deviation innovation greatly. Cropping, forestry and animal husbandry depend highly on their own past accumulations while it is not the case for fishery. One standard deviation innovation from animal husbandry affects the other three sectors greatly and the development of it will benefit the others.Result of variance decomposition finds that cropping affects itself less than the other three sectors do in output value, so is the case with fishery. Increase of forestry and animal husbandry output value depend on their own past accumulations greatly.Advices to build the agricultural comprehensive production Capacity of Hubei province are listed as follows:Extensively develop agricultural resources with land management as the core, intensively develop agriculture by increasing cropping multi-index and land productivity, and adjust agricultural structure timely.Decrease the number of farm labors, increase the share of agricultural fixed asset in capital investment, and stop the trend of agricultural land area shrinkage.Fully realize the cornerstone function of science and technology in agriculture, enhance agricultural TFP growth by technology progress and strengthen agricultural technical efficiency by pure technical efficiency increase. Ensure fiscal support to agriculture in government expenditure stably increase and better its input structure. Reform rural financing service system by transforming agricultural credit cooperative to a share-holding commercial bank and establishing a bank of post which can give farmers loans.Combine agricultural development with regionalization according to the agricultural production comparative advantage of every region.Take animal husbandry development as a priority, strengthen fishery capacity of self accumulation and develop cropping with the help from the other three sectors.