| Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is one of the essential parts of overall national strength, is the main marks of national or regional agricultural production capacity, agricultural relations of production and development status of agricultural superstructure. It is one of the rural economic and social development important strength, is the basis of the comprehensive competitiveness of a country or a region.China is a developing country with a population of more than1.3billion people. To improve the agricultural production capacity and to ensure the food security is the cornerstone of nation economy, social stability and National self-reliance. Today, it matters vital to national well-being and the people’s livelihood and it is a major and urgent strategic task. Dynamic evaluation and analysis of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of China is helpful to us for grasping the basic situation of China’s agriculture.Scientifically analyzing the characteristics of the level of domestic agricultural comprehensive production capacity at the present stage, a correctly understanding of the influencing factors about the overall agricultural production capacity and of its major problem we are facing, broadening new ideas for the development of agriculture, transforming agricultural development strategies, maintaining the sustained and stable development of China’s agriculture, maintaining social stability in rural areas, promoting the development of the rural economics, increasing farmers’income, has extraordinary theoretical and practical significance.According to the factors which impact China’s comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China’s agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. On this basis, it could be processed the evaluation data by means of regression analysis to overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or badtimes. And then, it could be takenmethods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to measure China’s comprehensive agricultural production capacity. Finally, we could propose countermeasures and suggestions about how to improve China’s comprehensive agricultural production capacity in terms of the above conclusion.Main contents of study include:(1) According to the factors which impact China’s comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China’s agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. It could be showed that the definitions of each evaluation index and corresponding formula and analysis the characteristics of dimensionless processing method of evaluation indexes.(2) We get the corresponding data for agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China by means of regression analysis. After that, we couldtake methods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to process the data and obtain forecasts during the period from2011to2015by checking statistical yearbook1997-2010. After the processing, it could be overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or bad and dynamically evaluate agricultural comprehensive production capacity.(3) Applying analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to dynamic evaluation of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity. Using14years of statistical data and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity,then presented the status of the dynamic changes of the various evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results.(4) Analyzing the change tendency of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China.First of all,analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the overall trends.From1997to2015, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity is increasing in our country, showed a trend of rising year by year, and growing steady. Secondly, analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the change trend of resource support capability.Resource metrics of though in strengthening the overall support capability, however, it is not stable, individual years has a weakening trend (e.g.,2003),sometimes there were larger fluctuations (such as1997-2003).Resource metrics, on the whole, although present a growth trend, however, growth relative to support index and benefit index is relatively slow,it appeared that though our country with large number of resources,relatively few resources to be developed. Thirdly, our country agriculture support index change trend are analyzed. Change trend of Chinese agriculture support index revealed a trend of growth, steady and growth, the growth speed relatively quick. The fourth, for the benefit of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity indicators of change trend are analyzed. The efficiency of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of present a rising trend, social benefit and economic benefit indicators also present a rising trend. The fifth, the social efficiency index rising trend is most obvious, and fastest growth.(5) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China.(6) According to the evaluation results of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of and trend analysis, put forward the countermeasure and the suggestion of improving agricultural comprehensive production capacity. In view of the resources, to strengthen the protection and utilization of resources, improve resource support capability. It could be taken to strengthen the construction of land carrying capacity, promoting land intensive management measures, etc. Aimed at supporting elements, could take to increase the effective irrigation area of farmland, improve the level of agricultural mechanization in our country, to improve the quality of the farmers, increase investment in science and technology, cultivation of professional investors, family farms and farmers cooperatives and other new type of production and operation organizations, promote the building of rural ecological civilization, and increasing rural fixed asset investment and other measures. In view of the benefit factor, could be taken to improve the per unit area yield of grain, efforts to increase the per capita net income of farmers and other measures.The innovation place of this study include:(1) Established a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weights of each evaluation index, and a consistency test was carried out.(2) According to the statistical yearbook data of the corresponding evaluation index, using the regression analysis method to carry on the forecast, the return of each evaluation index overcomes the deficiency of times has a direct influence on the volatility caused by different.(3) Used14years of statistics and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and gives the dynamic change of all kinds of evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results, and its change trend are analyzed.(4) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China. |
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