Analysis And Forcasting On The Factors Affecting The Price Of The Merchandise Residence In Xiaman

In recent years,with the housing system changed over,the merchandise residence industry has developed quickly.At the same time, the price of the merchandise residence has risen much,more and more people buy the building difficultly. The histric experience of developed countries had prved that, for example Japanese real estate bubbles froth and American loan crisis, excessively rises of real estate price in a short time would multiply the real estate froth, destroy financial system,even possibly bring economic depression for a long time.Continious rise of real estate also affects resident’s purchasing power,if the housing question cannot be solved properly,it would have extremely tremendous negative influence to the social stability. In the hot environment, Xiamen, real estate market in Xiamen is no exception. With the Xiamen merchandise residence in price rapidly, it has caused more and more people to concern it. What’s the factor cause the merchandise residence’s price to keep on rising? In this paper, I took the merchandise residence market at Xiamen City as an example, carried on qualitative analysis and qualititative analysis for this problem, and estimated the merchandise residerlce’s price in Xiamen City. Tlle purpose lie in this text is to find the extraordinary factor to influence the merchandise residence’s price at Xiamen City, objective, right of understanding, provide the reference for the decision of each paticipant of tile merchandise residence market.First of all, the author trys to qualitative analyze the factors affecting Xiamen Commodity house Price in the supply and demand way. Demand faetors include Xiamen gross domestie product(GDP),the per capita disposable income of urban population,the number of urba housing demolition area,urbanization,consumer preferences and so on.Supply factors include land costs, construction costs, the scale of investment and developers of real estate development for the future expectations. Affect both the demand and supply factors include the level of national economic development, inflation, interest rate factors and tax policy. These factors affect the demand and supply of commodity house, thus affecting the price of the merchandise residence.Then in Xiamen commodity house price influence factors are qualitatively analyzed. Using the datas from1998-2010in Xiamen City,the relevant data of the Xiamen City of GDP, total population, per capita disposable income, completion of the area, development costs,sales area of6indicators as independent variables, through the theoretical assumptions derived a multiple regression model, the establishment of a single equation model, and estimates parameters of model to test the hyptheses and economic analysis.Conclude:The disposable income of residents and and residential area of the completion are two key factors in Xiamen City merchandise redidence markets.Again, use a single equation regression model to predict the Xiamen City in2011and2012 the price of the merchandise residence.The predictive value of12281.15yuan per squre meter and13222.36yuan per squre meter. Actual and predicted values for2011the average price of the merchandise residence are closer.Finally, according to the results of quantitative and qualitative analysis, I said some reasonable policy recommendations.