The Measurement And Early Warning Of The Real Estate Bubble Of Harbin

Recently, along with the progressing of housing system reform and urbanization, the real estate industry has made a rapid development, its position of the pillar industry in our country national economy system also appears gradually. However in the process of its rapid development, it’s also accompanied by many problems, such as overheated real estate investment the structure of the commercial housing supply is irrational、excessive growth of house prices and so on, some places even appear the "Lady real mission" speculative speculation which seriously disturbs the normal market order. The steady development of the real estate market is not only the development of an industry, but also related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood、the people’s welfare and the other major issues. In the face of the real estate prices rising steadily, whether the real estate market bubble exists or non-exists and how to effectively control the foam has gradually become the hot topic in the community.As the capital city of Heilongjiang Province, economically developed city of the Northeast China, the development trend of Harbin takes an important role of the Northeast China. Under the circumstances, in order to having a better understanding of the real estate’s development in Harbin, this research obeys the principle of scientific、dynamic、maneuver ability and typicality, with the methods by combining theory with practice、standardized research with empirical study、 quantitative with qualitative research, and on the basis of making a summary about the theories of bubbling economy, this article first detailed define the real estate、the real estate marke、the real estate bubble and the related foundation of theories, preliminary analyze the development of the real estate market and major problems existing in it, then focus on the empirical approach to the research of the real estate market of Harbin, by choosing the related indicators in recent years, measure and analyze whether the foam of the real estate industry exists or not, and following is the conclusion: From2003-2009, the real estate market of Harbin overall had a certain degree of foam and reached the peak in2006, but after that, as the government put forward a series of control policies and the macro economic environment changed, the bubble was controlled to grow bigger. Last according to the characteristics of its own development, from the angle of view of standardizing land market, real estate market and financial market, put forward policy recommendations to effectively control the real estate bubble.Hope that through this study, can cause all circles in society enough attention to the real estate bubble, and actively take measures to strengthen to regulate and standardize the real estate market, then promote it to move with a healthy and orderly development.