Foreign Tourism Demand Influence Factors: Theoretical Model And Empirical Analysis

Tourism as a sunrise industry has a high degree of correlation andcomprehensive features.It plays a role in the national economy.Especiallythe inbound tourism bringing foreign currency income, all countriesexcept to support the development of inbound tourism industry. Inboundtourism is an important part of tourism industry.the foreign exchangeincome, economic construction and publicity plays an important role inInbound tourism.Since80times, Chinese Inbound tourism industryobtained the full development made China among the ranks of the world’slargest tourism, showing a flourishing situation.Through to the domestic and international tourism demand researchliterature analysis to classification of literature，this paper analysis on theinbound tourism in China and analyzed the current development situation,from consumer economics consumption theory to construct the tourismdemand of initial model. This paper analysis panel data from the2001-2009years of inbound tourism in China ’s20main source country.According to the econometric analysis of the effect of early foreigntourism demand key factors, we put forward the development of tourismdemand corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The full text isdivided into five chapters:The first chapter is the introduction for the main content in this paperresearch background and the significance, the domestic and foreign literature reviews briefly introduced the structure frame.The second chapter is the analysis of the current situation of inboundtourism. Through the analysis of the statistic data collection collateChinese Inbound Tourism development. This paper studies the number ofinbound tourism growth, foreign exchange earnings and the composition,structure characteristic analysis of inbound tourists, combined withdomestic tourism, inbound tourism, the number of foreign tourists arecompared. The structure character of inbound tourists includes gender,age composition, and purpose. Based on the analysis of current situationof entry tourism inbound tourism in China we found in tourism thatpositioning, from either number or scale of consumption are far less thanthe domestic tourism, and that tourism growth rate, the number ofinbound tourism by the special event fluctuation.The third chapter for foreign tourism demand modeling, through themain consumption theory review, draw lessons from its experience fortourism demand modeling. Study the main consumption theory: Keynes ’stheory of consumption, the consumption theory of Duesenberry,Freedman ’s theory of consumption, Modighiani consumption theory andrational expectation consumption function.The fourth chapter is the part of empirical analysis, including thevariables selection and data stationaritial test, according to therequirements of modeling inductive influence factor of tourism, through the measurement model and regression analysis.Finally,(PCSE estimation) corrected variance on panel data to returnagain.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion part. Byregression analysis, we found the four most important factor of ChineseInbound Tourism: the number of domestic tourists, real exchange rate,source country of GNI and Chinese interest rates.