Research On The Policies Simulation Of The Tourism Industry Development In Shanxi Based On System Dynamics

With the national policy of supply-side reform and excess capacity reduction,the economy of Shanxi which is supported by coal industry and other heavy industries has suffered a great recession.The tourism industry has become the province's first choice for transforming and upgrading the province's industrial structure,because it generates little environmental pollution and promotes residents' income.Tourism industry in Shanxi has a broad space for development because of three factors: the rich tourism resources in Shanxi,the significant tourism industry development scale in Shanxi,and the reduction of ?crowding out effect? that coal industry brings to the tourism industry.Selecting the Shanxi tourism industry as the research object,this paper points out that the current Shanxi tourism resources has great potential to release its social and economic benefits.Right now,the utilization of tourism resources in the development process of the tourism industry in Shanxi is insufficient.The integration of scattered tourism resources in geography is not ideal.There remain some questions,including too much repeated construction of tourism projects,outdated management model in scenic spot,shortage in transportation infrastructure and tourism supporting facilities led by the hotel etc.On this basis,this paper tries to use system dynamics theory to analyze the causal relationship between the system variables within the development of Shanxi tourism industry.A system dynamics model of the development of tourism in Shanxi is constructed with the drawing of system causality diagram and system flow chart.Vensim software is used to test the dynamic model of the development of tourism in Shanxi.The correctness and validity of the model is confirmed.Using system dynamics model to make policy simulation of Shanxi tourism development after the model can reflect the real situation,analyzing the effects of directly increased investment on tourism,increased students in tourist schools,increased infrastructure and the sum of above three on the development of tourism industry in Shanxi in future.The results show that the comprehensive policy had the most obvious promoting effect on the development of tourism industry in Shanxi.As for the three single policies,the effect of directly increased investment on tourism on the development of tourism industry in Shanxi is better than it of increased infrastructure,and the effect of increased students in tourist schools on the development of tourism industry in Shanxi is less obvious.Finally,based on policy simulation,this paper puts forward four suggestions on the policy making of Shanxi's tourism development in the light of the relevant policies to promote the development of tourism industry in Shanxi province.First,optimize and upgrade industrial structure in Shanxi province.Second,increase the government's investment in the tourism industry,and improve the financing channels of tourism.Third,improve service quality of tourism industry,and strengthen the training of tourism practitioners.Forth,pay attention to the basic supporting facilities,and provide a good atmosphere for the development of tourism.