The Selection Of Leading Industry In Shanghai

The theory of leading industry dated from the middle of last century. So far, such a theory has been developed maturely. In essence, reasonable and accurate industrial policy is first of all to select and determine the leading industries of a certain period, then pulling the macroeconomic development of all sectors through such sectors, a national and regional economic growth process is essentially the alternation of the dominant sectors results. This paper will theoretically practice on two levels asymptotic expansion:in theory, learn from the predecessors who have done part of the research results and learn from the original selection of the leading industries benchmark input-output tables as a carrier, select, such as the influence of coefficient, sensitivity coefficient to absorb the employment rate, energy consumption, output rate indicators, in order to optimize the calculation results; practice, primarily through principal component analysis model, draw a comprehensive evaluation function to sort the various industries, combined with the actual economic development selecting the fine situation, initially established the Shanghai industrial structure is still based model should be tilted to the tertiary industry, and select the wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, metal smelting and rolling processing industry, based communications electronics industry leading industries.In this paper, analysis is the selection of the leading industries. Leading the development of the Yangtze River Delta region can be described as a microcosm of China’s economy. In Shanghai,"the12th Five-Year Plan in particular, the traditional model of development is not sustainable, develop transformation is imminent. Shanghai municipal government also made a timely manner and expected to more than1000billion yuan into the development of key industries in the next three years."And on this basis, the focus on the development of a number of leading industries: information technology, biotechnology industries, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, the new material.So, the selection of the leading industry based? Is it really suitable for the coordinated development of the industry in Shanghai? This paper attempts to Shanghai’s industrial structure and analysis of input-output tables on this basis, the use of empirical calculation and proposed to adapt the outline of the development of leading industries in Shanghai itself, to verify that the Shanghai government’s "leading industries the feasibility of the policy, the orientation of fiscal policy in Shanghai, especially in the industrial planning formulation is given their own perspective. This paper will in theory and practice on two levels asymptotic expansion: in theory, learn from their predecessors have been part of the research results and learn from the original selection of the leading industries benchmark input-output tables as a carrier, some of the indicators coefficient improve with the deletion, in order to optimize the calculation results; practice, primarily through principal component analysis model, come to a comprehensive evaluation function to sort the various industries, combined with the actual situation of economic development in Shanghai selecting the fine.