The Choice Of China's Leading Industry In The Background Of Structural Reform On The Supply Side

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has continuously maintained its growth at a high speed,and it has now become the second largest economy after the United States.However,the previous economic policies mainly focused on the stimulus on the demand side,relying on “troika”-investment,consumption,and exports to stimulate economic growth,but with the decline of demographic dividend,accumulation of “middle income trap” risks,and profound adjustment of the international economic structure.After a series of internal and external factors,our economy has entered the "new normal." In order to adapt to this change,while facing traditional demand-side management with certain optimization space,it is urgently necessary to improve the supply environment and optimize the supply-side mechanism.Through supply-side structural reforms,supply and demand will be reasonably matched,and the economy will continue to be strengthened.The driving force for growth.In an economic entity(usually in units of countries and regions),the industrial sectors that make up the national economy are not the same in every stage of economic development,and the roles played by various departments in economic growth are not the same.The leading industries will also change at different stages of economic development.In particular,after the country implemented relevant policies on the supply-side structural reforms,the industrial structure of our country has undergone some changes.Different production sectors are affected by different factors,and there are great differences in the promotion and pull of the economy.Therefore,under the background of structural reforms on the supply side,predictive and predictive analysis of China's leading industries can provide a theoretical basis for formulating relevant policies for structural reforms on the supply side in China.After sorting out relevant theories of scholars at home and abroad,the article constructs an evaluation system for the selection of leading industries in China.It uses input-output technology and principal component analysis to perform related analysis and comprehensive rankings on the 17 sectors of the national economy.The department of the fifth forecast is the leading sector in China,and proposes corresponding policy recommendations for the supply-side structural reform of these departments.The main content of this article is as follows:The first chapter is part of the introduction,which mainly includes the research background and significance,domestic and foreign literature review,research structure arrangement and the innovation of this article.The second chapter is an overview of related theories and concepts.The content of this part mainly introduces the supply.The theory of lateral reform,the evolution of China's leading industrial structure,the evaluation system of the selection of leading industries,the selection of indicators,and the analysis and calculation methods of indicators;the third chapter is related analysis of China's industries in the context of structural reforms on the supply side.In the first year of structural reform on the supply side,after introducing the basic structure of the input-output table and the input-output model,this chapter used the RAS method to compile the input-output table for the 17 sectors of China in 2015.Based on this table and others,The statistical data are used to calculate index coefficients,and 17 sectors are analyzed for industry correlation,industrial growth potential analysis,industry comparative advantage analysis,industry absorption employment rate analysis,and industrial sustainable development analysis;Chapter IV is based on input-output tables led by China.Predictive analysis of the industry(empirical part),the main content of this part includes the data coming The idea of the principal component analysis method,the use of SPSS software for quantitative analysis,after the comprehensive evaluation function is obtained,comprehensively ranks 17 departments of the national economy,and predicts that the top five industrial sectors are under the background of structural reforms of the supply side in China.Leading industries.The fifth chapter is the conclusions of the study and the implications for structural reforms on the supply side.Industrial analysis is performed on the forecasted leading industrial sectors,and relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the current supply-side reforms.The innovation of this paper lies in the adoption of the RAS method to compile the input-output table of China's 17 sectors in 2015.The calculation includes the sensitivity coefficient,influence coefficient,productivity growth rate,income elasticity coefficient,proportion of output value,comparison of labor productivity,and employment absorption.8 index coefficients,including rate and energy consumption output value,use 17 input-output technologies for industrial analysis,and use principal component analysis to quantitatively analyze and predict the leading industries in the context of supply-side structural reform in China,given that The study of the input-output table compiled to the selection of leading industries is still very few.The research in this paper provides a certain theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant policies for structural reforms on the supply side in China.