Choice Of Leading Industry In Shandong Province Based On Input-output Table

The reasonable Industrial Structure and Policy can impel to raise the industry technical level, coordinate the industry development and advance industry structure transition. The Japanese economists thought:" In history, some old developed country trend to declines, one of basic causes is the Industrial Structure has not been able to realize the prompt transformation." A scientific reasonable Industrial Policy first must choose and determine the leading industry of a given period, then through leading industry's development to lead and promote the development of each department on national economy. A national or local economic growth process is actually the process which the leading industry department combined system changes unceasingly. Leading sector's growth and it's leading other department's growth, Constituted the melody of entire economic growth. The level of development and the technology progress level of leading industry, is a root cause to decide a country or a local economic growth quality, is also whether its industrial structure rationalization of important symbol.First, the development of leading industry can lead a country or an area national economy fast growth. Next, the development of leading industry can optimize the industry structure, lead the industry structure rationalization and gentrification. Once more, leading industry's production and development have the reforming function to the industrial system. Finally, according to the rules of the development of leading industry, the strategic choice of dominant industry can maintain sustained and healthy development of the national economy. Based on the above reason, this article main research leading industry choice question, and take Shandong Province as the example, selects suits the leading industry which Shandong Province develops, has certain theory and the practical significance.This article divides into four chapters. The first chapter is introduction part, introduced four aspect contents simply. First, this article studies background and significance; second, the leading industry theory's domestic and foreign related literature summarize; third, article research mentality and frame; fourth, this article main innovation explanation. The second chapter introduced the leading industry and the input-output analysis correlation theories knowledge simply. Mainly introduced leading industry's concept and leading industry's choice theory, as well as this article needs to use the value puts into production the model.The third chapter is the main content of this article, the choice benchmark of leading industries are introduced, and make the benchmark to be quantified, then introduces the paper to use multivariate statistics method: principal component analysis, and the three way to find leading industries. Using the principal components analytic method to choice leading industry from three aspects:(1) Using the principal components analysis for quantification target directly, obtains the quality synthetic evaluation function, sorting obtains the leading industry.(2)Based on the input-output progress, improves the quantification industry incidence coefficient, make the sense degree coefficient and the impetus coefficient replace the original coefficient, using the principal components analysis for improving target, obtains the quality synthetic evaluation function, sorting obtains the leading industry.(3)The Leontief inverse matrix from the value of input-output table, is multiplied by the weight table after its each line, directly using principal components analytic method, obtains the quality synthetic evaluation function, sorting obtains the leading industry. Using the method of leading industry is based on the industry association, elected is strong pull and push the role.This is the fourth chapter of the examples, based on the part of input-output table in shandong province in 2002 by these three methods, the corresponding leading industries, and the three methods to be compared.