Jiangsu Province Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions Temporal Evolution And Driving Factors Research

Carbon emission problem has been the major concern of the world. China has also promised to undertake the responsibility of reducing the carbon emissions.The provincial administrative areas are the regional units where the government policies take effects most directly and efficiently, so the study on regional carbon emissions has important significance in formulating the carbon emission reduction policy. Carbon emissions are mostly caused by fossil energy consumption. As a developed province in eastern China, Jiangsu Province has a huge energy consumption every year, and the consumption is fossil energy-based. Study on the changing features of the carbon emissions of energy consumption and its driving factors is representative and has practical meanings.The main contents of this paper are as follows:According to the fossil energy consumption data of Jiangsu Province from1987to2009and its industrial final energy consumption data from1995to2009, the author calculates the total carbon emissions and other related indicators of Jiangsu Province. The total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, all varieties of primary energy carbon emissions and their structure and efficiency, as well as the final energy consumption carbon emissions of three industries are analyzed. The features of their timing evolution are summarized. Then the relationship between the carbon emissions and the economic development is analyzed, and the result shows that the carbon emissions and the economic development in Jiangsu Province only decoupled relatively in most years of the study period.In this paper, the author uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to analyze the growth of the total carbon emissions from energy consumption at social and economic levels. The author transformed the total carbon emissions into the product of four factors, energy structure, energy efficiency, the level of economic development and population size and analyzed the driving effect of each factor takes on carbon emissions.Among the four factors the level of economic development and the population size are the main driving factors while the energy efficiency and the energy structure the main restraining factors. Then the factors consisting of the industrial final energy consumption are divided and analyzed respectively. The carbon emissions of the industrial final energy consumption are divided into four factors as industrial structure, energy efficiency, industrial carbon emission efficiency and industrial economic scale by the same means. Among them the industrial economic scale and industrial structure are the main driving factors while the industrial energy efficiency and c industrial carbon emission efficiency the main restraining factors.The paper makes predictions on carbon emissions of energy consumption of Jiangsu Province in the next10years (up to2020) under three situations. The result shows that in baseline scenario the carbon emissions condition will not be optimistic; in low carbon scenario the carbon emissions situation will go better; in enhanced low carbon scenario the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development will finally achieve complete decoupling.Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, this paper puts forward some measures to achieve low-carbon development:to improve energy structure and develop new sources of energy; to optimize the industrial structure, actively introduce advanced low carbon technology and strengthen people’s awareness of low-carbon life; to create a good environment for low-carbon development.