The Analysis About Variation, Driving Factors And Forecast Of Carbon Emission Of Energy Consumption, In Xinjiang

This paper, using the descriptive statistics, energy economics, prediction methods,respectively from the perspective of primary energy use and the industry terminal energyuse，study energy consumption carbon emissions characteristics, driving factors, and thefuture development of xinjiang. Main conclusions are as follows:1Xinjiang energy consumption increased year by year, increasing carbonemissions; increasing per capita carbon emissions after1990and higher than the nationalaverage; Of the three fossil fuels, the coal consumption of the largest and highest carbonemissions, followed by oil, natural gas and finally; carbon emissions from different sectorsare quite different in Xinjiang, industry is the largest sector carbon emissions, and has agrowing trend in domestic energy consumption carbon emissions residents after theindustrial sector, changes in the basic stability; energy intensity and carbon intensity fromXinjiang to rise after first decline since1980, and from1980-2011an average higher thanthe national average; carbon emissions and carbon intensity in different regions of Xinjiang,there is a big difference.2Decoupling theory suggests: economic development in Xinjiang and carbonemissions in a relatively decoupled state most of the time, that description is not entirelyXinjiang’s economic development and the establishment of the coal resource consumption.Moreover, the performance of various departments not identical, agriculture, forestry,animal husbandry and fishery, construction and transportation of its most decoupling indexcalculation is greater than zero, that illustrate the relationship between economic growth andcarbon emissions of these sectors relative decoupling relations that illustrate severaldepartments, small dependence on coal resources. The calculation results of industry andcatering industry are mostly less than zero, it is clear that the two types of higher economicdevelopment department dependence on coal resources3showed a decomposition structure of energy: the economic level and populationsize as the main pull factors of carbon emissions, energy efficiency and energy structure asthe main inhibiting factor. And the role of structural effects will contribute to further energydecomposition found that the consumption of the energy mix of coal resources are too highare the main causes of carbon emissions. 4the decomposition results show that final energy industry: the economic scale,industrial structure, industrial carbon emissions and industrial energy efficiency factor offour factors, the economies of scale and industrial structure is caused by carbon emissionsgrowth in major pull factors, industrial energy efficiency and industrial carbon emissionfactor as the main inhibiting factor. And the contribution of the role and contribution of theindustrial energy efficiency and the role of the industrial structure effect furtherdecomposition found, the share of industry and efficiency are the main causes of carbonemissions. And found that the internal industrial carbon emissions and carbon intensity ofdifferent sectors are quite different.5Gray predicted results show the Xinjiang carbon emissions in accordance with theexisting development pattern of energy consumption in the next few years, predicted resultsshowed that: in2020, the123,807,100tons, average annual growth of the amount of7.49million tons, a very severe form of emissions. And five industrial sectors, the futureindustrial carbon emissions is still the main sector, followed by agriculture, forestry, animalhusbandry and fishery, while the smallest carbon emissions is the construction industry.From the rate of growth, the fastest growth rate of carbon emissions for the industrial sector,and its annual growth rate of7.03%, while the growth rate of the industrial sector was thelowest, its annual growth rate of2.66%。...