The Effect Of Fluctuation Of RMB Exchange Rate On The Structure Of Export Trade

Since the reform and opening-up policy, RMB has gone through four stages of appreciation and devaluation. It has a thorough impact on China's economic entities, especially when the sharp appreciation occurred due to the reform of RMB exchange rate in July 21,2005, which attracted wide concerns domestically and abroad. But the current research generally is related to an anti-relation between the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and China's import and export trade, and these researches are mainly about the analysis of the total amount of trade, and seldom explain the relation between the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the structure of China's export trade.In order to evaluate the effect of RMB fluctuation on the structure of China's export trade, my thesis is to focus on the reaction that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate causes to the structure of China's export trade from the perspective of allocation of resources.The thesis will start from analyzing the history of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the transaction of the structure of export trade, and then quantitatively analyze the reaction that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate causes to the structure of China's export trade by Vector Auto-regression model with relative data about the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and structure of China's export trade. Its conclusions are:firstly, the appreciation of RMB is an important factor for the change of structure of China's export trade, which also causes the change of structure of primary products and industrial products output; secondly, the reduction rate of labor-intensive products output is expected to be higher than that of capital-intensive products output as the result of the RMB appreciation; thirdly, the RMB appreciation can help improve the proportion of high-tech products output among industrial products.