| The article first describes the derivation of the conduction effect of the financial crisis, draw conduction effect is divided into trade spillovers, monsoon effects and self-fulfilling effect since2007., then make a summary of the theory of the the conventional financial crisis conduction through the collation of the literature, the conduction effect of the financial crisis is mainly divided into the conduction of contact and non-contact conduction. conduction trade spillovers and financial spillovers contact, rather thancontact conduction including monsoon effect and self-fulfilling effect. Which trade spillovers are divided into direct trade spillovers and indirect trade spillovers, The direct trade overflow country crisis affected countries through the direct effect of the price effect and the income effect, the indirect trade spillovers mainly competitive currency devalued. The financial overflow into direct financial the overflow and indirect financial overflow the direct financial overflow is derived from the long-term and short-term capital flows, including short-term capital flight affected cause weakening of the domestic capital mobility, the economic bubble burst, long-term capital flight will lead to the increase in the unemployment rate by the affected countries reduce national income. Indirect financial spillovers mainly emphasized the role of banks, international financial institutions in a country crisis will lead to credit dealings with other countries domestic circulation weakened liquidation of the country’s international assets, these countries will inevitably reduce the credit to banks from other countries this may lead to crisis through the credit channel conductive to the crisis the country there is no direct financial dealings of other countries. The monsoon effect change in the country’s economic policy crisis led to fluctuations in the economies of other countries, as well as valuation effects caused by the exchange rate and interest rate channels, that is, by the impact of the country’s external imbalance.From the U.S. debt crisis, the U.S. debt crises triggered three aspects First, devaluation of the dollar, capital flows, the three credit risks in the banking sector, these three aspects will make the U.S. debt crisis also spill through trade, financialoverflow and monsoon effect conduction. This article through the VAR model, the ARDL model, Tarch model, and error correction model conduction effect on China and the macroeconomic impact of the U.S. debt crisis is analyzed, the main macroeconomic variables selected for the inflation rate and the real effective exchange rate, which is mainly taking into account the inflation rate is a reflection of the country’s internal economic operation, the real effective exchange rate reflects the country’s external economic operation, also selected the stock price index, mainly to analyze the impact of short-term capital flight from the stock price index in China, as well as the good news and bad news in the U.S. debt crisis during the U.S. stock market in turn impact on world stock markets.Trade overflow empirical analysis of the results of the selection of the VAR model and ARDL model for countries direct spillover effects on the impulse response of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is not obvious, but also from various countries is also a positive and negative impact in different directions; indirect trade overflow.China competition on the market in France and Germany are the largest effect but this can not be ruled out that the impact of the European debt crisis, but it reflects the regional crisis, because France and Germany in the Euro zone. Evidence also shows that the the indirect spillovers mainly from China and the United States to compete in the Japanese market effects.The financial overflow aspects of the U.S. debt crisis triggered by short-term capital evacuate the inflation rate, the real effective exchange rate and stock price volatility, there is significant good news and bad news in the monsoon effect mainly through the British role in the world stock marketAsia and the impact of the euro zone by the same time, the fluctuations of the index of the world is difficult to affect changes in China’s stock index shows that the short-term capital flows is the main reason for the volatility of our stock price. But Mosson theoretical model that The monsoon effect pathway is the interest rate and exchange rate valuation effect model, so it should explore the monsoon effect, but because of China’s foreign assets data is incomplete, and therefore only by stock price index channels described. Ultimately, we get the conclusion to the current round of the U.S. debt crisis is mainly overflow through the the indirect trade overflow and financial transfer to the country. But less than20months due to the U.S. debt crisis time from now from the choice of monthly data, must forward the expansion, and that is selected from the start in January2010or February, so that you can not rule out the debt crisis in Europe factors that impact on China’s economy. The choice is just emerging debt crisis, and in turn the debt crisis conduction effect the formation of the initial system and discusses. These can be used as articles innovations. |
