The Data Revisingapproach For Chinese GDP And Appliedpreliminaryexploration

GDP,especially Chinese GDP has been paid close attention by public. There is a big difference in the discussion of GDP between China and the United States. The enormous wealth of GDP-based quantitative analysisto the entire social economicsystem has always been recognized and praised by the vast majority of people in USA. While in China, GDP indexsometimes is not a positive concept, even treated as a bad indicator whichis harmful to the human’s happiness. In fact, the economic system is just an integral part of the whole social system, and the design of GDP index only focuses on the country’s economic system, which is to measurethe developmentof a country’s economiclevel. Namely GDP in essence is not a development-measurementindex of overall social system, therefore that criticizing GDP for the unaccomplished task of fully reflection of the development level of the entire social system would not be appropriate. As a result, analysis of the GDPno need to and should not mix too much personal emotion.GDP is a concept ofthe productsupply, and its basic meaning is to measure the current production of the final product, and the GDP’score essence is a comprehensive reflection of the national economy’s situation. An important task of the NationalAccounts is to complete the calculation for all activities in the SNA definition of productioncomprehensively and exhaustively, and then total up to get the GDP data. Yetnumbers of studies have shown that there will always be a part of production activities which could not be collected into the GDP index in the accounting process, and then it becomes the NOE (Non-observed Economy). At present, NOE has developed into an internationalphenomenon, whose impact on the entire national economic has become a hot research topic in variouscountries. Research subject of this article is just a study of the various effects of the Chinese NOE to the GDPstatistics, and that how to measure these effects.This article is divided into four parts. The first part is to retrospect the outstanding contributionmade by GDP index to let human know and grasp of the social and economic activities, and then to make detailed analysis of current GDP’s various limitations when measuringentire social comprehensivedevelopment, moreover picking the contents of NOE as this article’s principal line and leading to the main theme-Chinese GDP Data Revising. In the second part, it gives a brief review of the historical evolution of Chinese GDP statistics, and then focuses on analyzing the connotation of the NOE, the causes of the Chinese NOE, and the relative research background. The third part is the empirical analysis, applying five methods-the micro-differential method, the principal component regression model, the residents’ marginal consuming and saving propensity model,the cash demand equation model, and the equilibrium model of the National Accounts, and thus obtaining six time series of estimated Chinese NOE. Based on these six series, Chinese GDP data were revised. Summering and prospectingare placed in the fourth part. By comparative analysis of six revised GDPseries and revised nominal GDP growth, and studying the several key years, it can be drawn some preliminary conclusions. In final, this article gives a prospect to the applied research of the GDP data revising, and investigates some possible directions for follow-up study.