| Since2007, the United States sub-loan crisis evolved into a global financialcrisis, the question how to survive and develop, were confronted with hithertounknown challenge and the huge pressure of competition for all enterprises.Manufacturing industry, as the most important part of the real economy, thoughplayed a decisive role in the economic development of all countries, has been hit inthe enormous impact of the financial crisis. There is an important practicalsignificance to establish an effective financial early-warning model.To the enterpriseoperators, it could make a more accurate grasp of the company’s financial results,alert the management capabilities; to the investors, it can make investors have aclearer understanding of the investment company, effectively reduce the blindinvestment the risk, and protect the interests of investors; to the creditors, it canprotect less subject to the enterprise financial crisis brought about the loss toenterprises or not; to the regulators, it can help regulators clear regulatory direction,position the regulatory objectives more accurately.In the post-crisis era, the world has entered the detente coexisting with theunknown turbulence state, for the China’s manufacturing industry, how to analysis thefinancial information effectively and reasonably, forecast the enterprise’s financialcrisis in advance, prevent the financial crisis of enterprises,and strengthen thefinancial risk early warning before the crisis has not yet come has very importantpractical significance.According to efficiency principle, relevance principle, prediction principle, theprinciple of comparability and principle of operation, we select the corresponding financial ratios, and construct the financial indicators of financial warning system. Atthe same time, the addition of non-financial indicators of corporate governance, thetypes of audit opinions, the company violations, restructuring, the effectiveness of theinternal control information, ownership structure, board chairman, and on the basis ofabove,we construct the post-crisis era of China’s manufacturing industry listingCorporation financial early warning index system.In this paper, the implementation of ST listing Corporation from the Shanghaiand Shenzhen stock markets in2009--2012years is defined as the financial crisisenterprises, we selected84samples of ST crisis, and the corresponding84samplenon-ST companies,which is added up to a sample of168as research sample.We usethe ST data of last year, get the index data index from the system. During theempirical analysis, we check the sample data characteristics of normality test first.We use T test for those obeying to the normal distribution index data, and use thenonparametric test--Man-Whitney U test for the other,to test the significantdifference test on the variables in the index; after excluding, to reduce the thedimension of the remaining financial index, use factor analysis method constructingthe financial indicators of Logistic model;finally,we get the post-crisis era of China’smanufacturing industry listing Corporation Logistic early warning model based onfinancial index. Then we get the Logistic early warning model of post-crisis era ofChina’s manufacturing industry based on the comprehensive index of listingCorporation.From the research we find, financial early warning model of comprehensiveindex established to forecast the ability is better than the financial index model basedon Financial indicators; after the crisis, the protection of corporate profitability,solvency, operating and cash flow mainly determines whether a company canmaintain a good financial situation; the audit opinion type of financial crisis haveanticipated strong. The conclusion of this paper provides research basis for the post-crisis era ofChina’s manufacturing industry listing Corporation financial early-warning problem,which we expect can provide reference for prevention of empirical evidence andpolicy of China’s manufacturing industry financial risk. |
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