Research On The Financial Crisis Early Warning Of A Company

The financial crisis warning is based on the financial data and operation of the enterprise.It analyzes the potential crisis of delisting and bankruptcy faced by the enterprise in a targeted manner,and provides early warning and proposes an effective management method for the solution.The financial crisis early warning research is of great significance to the enterprise and is the focus of scholars at home and abroad.In the current economic new normal situation,economic development has changed from a heavy speed to a heavy quality,and technological innovation is the main force for achieving high-quality development.Due to the rise of 5G technology,technological change is a huge challenge for communication companies.Communication companies are prone to potential financial crisis during the technology development phase.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to financial crisis warning.The case A Company selected in this paper is greatly affected by the transformation and development period of the communication industry,and the lack of early warning mechanism of financial crisis makes it a typical object that is easy to be eliminated.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to conduct financial crisis early warning research.The first part of this paper is mainly to sort out the research on financial crisis early warning of scholars at home and abroad.The second part defines the related concepts of financial crisis early warning,introduces the model and important theory of financial crisis early warning,and chooses suitable for A Company.The Logistic model of financial crisis earlywarning lays a theoretical foundation for follow-up research.The third part expounds the importance of A company's financial crisis early warning,and lays a foundation for A company to build a financial crisis early warning model.The fourth part,through the definition of the financial crisis of the GEM listed companies,this paper selects 39 enterprises that meet the definition of financial crisis,and selects 39 financially normal enterprises of similar scale through the 1:1 enterprise matching principle to form the sample data of this paper.On the basis of understanding the current situation of A Company's financial crisis warning,the financial data disclosed by China's GEM listed companies is used as the basic information,and the financial early warning indicator system of this paper is selected.Then using SPSS21.0 statistical software,the pre-selected index variables were tested and screened by mathematical statistics method.Then the factor analysis of the screening index variables was carried out to establish a financial crisis early warning logistic model for A Company.The model can be based on the t-year financial Data,to achieve the financial crisis warning for the t + 2years.The fifth part,the company's 2013-2016 data into the established financial crisis early warning model,make a suitability test,the results show that the model is suitable for A Company,It can realize the financial crisis warning for A Company.Subsequent to the company's 2017 data into the model,the calculation and analysis shows that A Company may have a financial crisis in 2019,and identify the main factors that cause financial crisis.The sixth part,according to the main factors analyzed by the financial crisis early warning model,targeted Sexually propose a solution to the financial crisis so that A Company can learn from it.Based on the relevant theory of financial crisis early warning,this paper uses factor analysis and logistic regression in SPSS21.0 statisticalsoftware to construct a financial crisis early warning logistic model suitable for A Company,which can realize the short-term financial crisis warning for A Company.In the research process,how to scientifically select the financial crisis early warning indicators and use the SPSS software to construct the Logistic model is the difficulty of this paper.Adding non-financial indicators to the financial crisis early warning indicator system is the innovation of this paper.This study can provide a reference for other companies to conduct financial warnings in practice.