Decoupling Effect Of Carbon Emission In Transportation Industry And Its Decoupling Path Analysis

Transportation industry has been shown to be major carbon emissions industry in China,in the background of reduction on carbon emission nowadays,stable economic growth being ensured has become the inevitable requirement for the over-all socio-economic progress at the same time the development of low-carbon transportation.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical value to study the decoupling relationship and decoupling path between carbon emissions and economic growth in transportation industry for constructing low-carbon transportation system with coordinated development of society and economy.Based on this,the paper applies the "top-down" method recommended by IPCC to measure carbon emissions from transportation in China from 1995 to 2014,constructs the decoupling model of carbon emissions in transportation industry on the basis of Tapio decoupling index model,analyzing the decoupling state between carbon emissions and the economic growth on transportation industry from 1995 to 2014.And further influencing factor model of carbon emission on transportation industry is built by the LMDI factor decomposition method based on Kaya identity and Ridge regression analysis based on the STIRPAT model.From the perspective of dynamic and static combination,the thesis explores the deep-seated reasons for response relationship of influencing between the transportation carbon emissions and economic growth,and so as to clear the influencing factors of carbon emissions on transport industry in China and its dynamic mechanism.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2014,there are three kinds of decoupling state between the total carbon emissions in the transportation industry and the economic growth,namely weak decoupling state,expansion-negative decoupling state and expansion connection state,the decoupling state is poor in general,the low-carbon transformation of the transportation industry has a long way to go;(2)The effect form of carbon emission in transport industry is expressed as the driving force and the inhibitory force,which induce the evolution of carbon emissions in transportation,among them,GDP per capita and population size has a role in enhancing the carbon emissions on transportation industry,and the effect on former is more obvious,the energy consumption structure of transportation has been the performance of inhibition to the industry carbon emission,transport intensity and energy intensity show inhibition effect as a whole;(3)population size,energy intensity,transport intensity,GDP per capita are important driving factors in the growth of carbon emissions on transportation industry,energy structure optimization is an important constraint factor on the growth of carbon emissions of transportation,in particular,an increase of 1% on the population size,energy intensity,transport intensity,GDP per capita respectively,transportation carbon emissions will grow by 0.49%,0.39%;0.48%,5.51%,energy structure for optimization 1%each,transportation carbon emissions will reduce by 0.54%.Finally,in order to achieve the real goal of "decoupling" between carbon emissions and growth in transportation industry,this paper makes policy suggestions starting from the strengthen on demand management of transportation,the optimization of transportation energy consumption structure,the decrease of energy and transportation intensity to set the path of decoupling for carbon emissions on transportation industry in the future of China.