| With the influence of the state economic and energy security and the global climate change, the issue of energy saving and emission reduction has been the focus of common concern among the global academia and national governments. As one of the largest energy producer and consumer, China is facing a strategic problem, energy saving and emission reduction, impeding the all-around situation of China's economic and social development.In fact, one of the most effective measures of energy saving and emission reduction is to take important areas as a breakthrough. The chemical industries, a critical role of the whole industry, are also one of the biggest contributors to energy production and consumption. Therefore, the chemical industries are mainly responsible for CO2 emissions. It is obviously necessary for China's energy and environmental policy makers to investigate the driving forces governing CO2 emission levels and their evolution.According to the methods of cointegration analysis and causality research, this paper studied the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in China's chemical industry. Investigation of how energy-related CO2 emissions change over times becomes a major issue in formulating both energy and environmental policies. Thus we decompose the change of China's chemical industrial CO2 emissions over 1996-2007 into sectoral energy consumption effect, fossil energy ratio effect, fossil energy structure effect, economic activity, chemical industrial sectoral structure effect and energy intensity based on LMDI(the Log-Mean Divisia Index). Implementation of a carbon tax is one of the major ways to mitigate CO2 emission. A fuzzy goal programming approach, integrated with gray prediction and input-output theory, is used to construct a model for simulating the CO2 reduction capacities and economic impacts of three different tax scenarios. In a word, research of chemical industrial CO2 emissions makes an important guiding significance. |
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