Theory And Empirical Analysiss For Export Enterprise Exchange Rate Risk

Since China’s reform and opening up, the degree of its international exchanges and cooperation is more and more frequently. As one way named the "Troika" to promote economic growth, the export has got continuous improvement and become increasingly important. After the reform of the RMB in2005, China’s managed floating exchange rate system has lead to dramatic fluctuation in the economic and international trade. So that, the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the economy becomes more apparent, especially in China’s foreign trade balance of payments and the trade structure. This paper focuses on the RMB exchange rate volatility trend from1980to2011. According to the exchange rate appreciation of the RMB reform in2005, this paper analysis Laiwu’s import and export trade, who is the smallest city of Shandong province. In this paper, we explore the status and the impact of the RMB exchange rate in Laiwu’s economy, then we describes the reasons of its grim export situation. At last, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the import and export trade in Laiwu.The upward trend of the RMB exchange rate has bring greater pressure on the export of Laiwu, which is of lower grade and highly depend on the foreign trade. the increasing risk of economic development has led to bad effect on Laiwu’s economy. In the empirical analysis, focuses on the analysis of Laiwu city’s import and export trade situation and characteristics of products, macroscopical hold Laiwu city in recent years the export situation is grim’s internal and external influence factors, combined with the effects of various factors on the rate of export enterprises in Laiwu’s export volume change, profit rate and exchange rate risk ability of concrete analysis on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the influence of the specific qualitative and quantitative analysis.Combined with AHP and the Laiwu municipal key export enterprises in survey results, this paper holds that the exchange rate on export enterprises in Laiwu more obvious effects, especially the economic risks of the exchange rate.In theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate bring export products denominated in foreign currencies relative price increase, thereby weakening the competitiveness, export volume drops; or to maintain export volume unchanged, lower prices remain competitive, which will bring about the enterprise exports profit decline.And the specific situation of Laiwu City, the agricultural products export in recent years there has been a "growth price minus" characteristic, namely in order to maintain a certain scale of export volume, can reduce the price, thereby maintaining a certain share of exports, but this leads to a reduction of the profit of export enterprises. So the appreciation of the renminbi is not conducive to the export of Laiwu City, especially for labor-intensive, exports of low value-added export products, while in Laiwu City, the first intermediate export products occupy half of the country of its exports, so the study on Laiwu agricultural products export enterprises for exchange rate appreciation bear force, we propose suitable Laiwu export industry development ideas and suggestions.Therefore, with the specific circumstances of Laiwu City, this paper thinks that the next step of our government should focus the work on finding its new economic development potential growth points,and changing the downwards of its export trends. After the abolition of Laiwu Steel, Laiwu’s export has been more and more severe. So some enterprises can introduce some hige-tech inputs and outputs to develop its product of local characteristics. Then we can promote the economy and the export trade better. For export enterprises, with the exchange rate risk prevention methods as auxiliary, their focus should be to improve the competitiveness of the enterprises themselves. Nowadays, for the labour force and raw material cost rises ceaselessly, enterprises should use the internal and external management tools and technology, accelerate technical progress of enterprises and the upgrading of products, such as agricultural enterprises to improve product deep processing technology, efforts to form their own brand and characteristic, raise the additional value of the export products is the long term, the root of the problem.