The Patterns Of Trade Growth And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Products Between China And Vietnam

Since the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam in1991, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has seen an unprecedented development. The governments of the two countries are concerned about the issue of agricultural trade. With the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and the smooth implementation of the "early harvest" program, trading conditions of agricultural products between the two countries continue to improve, and the trade of agricultural products increase sharply. Currently, domestic scholars who analyze the growth mode of agricultural trade mostly base on the macro-level data, and rarely on the micro-product level by the dual-marginal method.With the selection of agricultural products between the two nations as the research object, this paper describes the current producing situation of agricultural production and the trade situation of the agricultural products between China and Vietnam. Then it calculates dual-marginal of their agricultural products by using HS-6digit data on international trade, and analyzes the influence factors of dual-marginal. The dual-marginal calculation results show that extensive margin is the main pattern of trade growth either in the bilateral trade of agricultural products between the two countries, or the two countries’agricultural products export to their major trading partners. That is to say, the trade growth of agricultural products results from an expand variety of products. The empirical results show that both agricultural value added and the number of agricultural labor of the two countries have a positive effect on extensive margin and intensive margin, while the effect of both factors on intensive margin is greater than that on the extensive margin. However, the effect of the per capita agriculture value added of the two countries in trade margin is not obvious. Therefore, in order to promote the trade growth of agricultural products, China and Vietnam should expand the types of agricultural products trade, enhance the added value of agricultural products, and strengthen bilateral cooperation and exchanges in agricultural industry.