Emblem Of Shanghai-hangzhou Highway Bot Project Risk Assessment And Share The Method Research

Risk management is an important part in project management, which has a great impact on the globality of project management and the realization of final project goal. This paper is focused on the BOT project in infrastructure, in particular, the highway project. BOT project is affected by many factors according to its complexity in process. The progress of BOT meets with uncertainty due to the change of domestic or international environment factors, the relationship developing of participators, the structure of financing and the supply of capital. These factors also determine the operation cost and economic intensity of the project after construction. All these questions can only be settled on the basis of a comprehensive risk management, which includes the risk identification, risk assessment, risk analysis, and also the reasonable risk allocation with dynamic controls decision made according to steps mentioned just now. Researches on the difficulty in risk assessment is not sufficient or integrated, which neglect the problems that the number of decision makers is large, or that the decisions made by experts are fuzzy or complicated, and that the quantization of the decisions is hard and always turned out to be anamorphic. This paper is written to give a solution of the questions above, hoping that the solution can offer some help to the risk management of BOT projects.In this paper, an attempt is made at identifying common risks in BOT highway projects in the view of the whole project, with an analysis on key risks for each participator. A novel hierarchical structure of risks is presented on the basis of the project-oriented point of view, next, some effective criteria for risk assessment in BOT projects are introduced. This study uses a dynamic multi-objective programming approach to establish a risk assessment model, and develops an iterative algorithm for the model solution. The proposed model is used for identifying and assessing risks in a BOT highway project. Compared with other traditional models, the proposed model has an understandable structure and a high information content, whose equations are also easy and convenient to solve, without fuzzy errors in criteria’s weights. Finally, the assessment of high risks are determined in the BOT highway example, as an application of the model. In the next chapter, risk allocation analysis is done to all participators in the BOT example, the priciples of risk allocation is given. Suggestions on the applications of risk allocation is made at the end of this paper.