Build Hog Market Monitoring And Early Warning System

Firstly, this thesis talks about the position of the pig rearing industry in China’s national economy,which elaborates the importance of the pig rearing industry. In the year of2007, due to the sharp rise inthe pig price, it has driven the price rising in poultry meat, poultry eggs, beef, mutton, aquatic products,and eventually spread to the whole food market. It has promoted a rapid rise in the CPI, and become themain promoter for the inflation of that year. The reason why it can cause such a huge impact is thatChina’s pig rearing industry produces nearly half of the total world pork production, which means Chinais the largest pig rearing country in the world, and it also holds a pillar position in the animal husbandryindustry, which produces65%of the total meat production. Meanwhile, more than13other industriessuch as feed processing industry, slaughtering industry, veterinary medicine and biological products arehighly dependent on the pig industry. The pig industry chain, which has the pig rearing industry as thecore, can create a total output value of more than1.5trillion and provide job opportunities for more than100million people.Secondly, this thesis applies industry system analysis method, case analysis method and researchanalysis method to the in-depth analysis and research of the characteristics of the changes occurred inChina’s pig market for nearly20years. And with the combination of the Western economic theories, itcarries out in-depth analysis into the reasons for the occurrence of three kinds of cobweb phenomenonin China’s pig market during the past decade. The rocketing and plumping of pig price belongs to thedivergent cobweb phenomenon, and this thesis analyses the deep reasons for its occurrence. It alsoillustrates the importance, necessity and urgency of setting up the monitoring and early warning systemfor the pig market.After the analysis of the deep reasons for the rocketing and plumping of pig price, this thesis putsforward the methods for changing market and for the producers to avoid market risks. According toChina’s basic national conditions, characteristics of pig market volatility and developing trends for pigrearing industry, it puts forward the principle of building a monitoring and early warning system for pigmarket. Based on building a information monitoring network, the first thing to do is to monitor andquantify the pig price, feed price, pig inventory structure, diseases and changes in profit and loss cycle;then to establish the exponential model, identify the early warning indicators and the early warningmodel.Finally, this thesis puts the theory of establishing a monitoring and early warning system for pig market into practical application, and analysis the development of the software for monitoring and earlywarning system for pig market which indicates that the system software can be combined with B/S andC/S system and placed in GIS information system and expert intelligent system. The conclusion part ofthis article also introduces the operation of “Monitoring and Early Warning System for Pig Productionof Sichuan Province” and “Soozhu-Monitoring and Early Warning System for China’s Pig Market”.