Research On The Construction Of Government Energy Efficiency Monitoring And Early Warning System Based On "One Library And Three Centers"

This paper studies on early warning of government energy efficiency,which is based on the analysis of domestic and international macroeconomic monitoring and early warning research.In the course of research,we use the early warning theory and mathematical analysis platform “one library and three centers” designed by SGCC which provides mathematical analysis tool to establish the research based on ”one library and three centers” government energy efficiency monitoring and early warning system and model.This paper collected a large number of statistical data in Taizhou area,we analyzed statistical data and according to the analysis results,policy advice will be provided to the local government.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1).This paper expounds the significance of energy saving and emission reduction work,and emphasizes the necessity and urgency of carrying out energy saving statistical monitoring and early warning.In the extensive literature on the basis of research,this paper discusses the research progress of domestic and international research situation,economic early-warning theory and models in the field of energy.According to China's actual work and Taizhou energy statistics,we select the KLR signal model as the basis of this paper to establish government energy efficiency monitoring and early warning system which is based on “one library and three centers” in Taizhou.(2).This paper analyzes energy consumption per unit GDP and its influencing factors.We select the most active,sensitive and easiest to monitor indicators to firstly establish energy efficiency monitoring and early warning index system which is based on the analysis of the factors affecting the unit GDP and the basis of the existing statistical reporting system.The index system is composed of three indicators,which are energy consumption composition warning index,regional industrial structure early warning index and energy consumption index.(3).An early warning model based on KLR signal analysis is established.It includes the calculation of the threshold,the determination of the weight and the determination of the alarm limit value of these three aspects.According to the importance of monitoring indicators,this segment sets the corresponding scores,and through the monitoring indicators,comprehensive score will also be calculated.According to the scores,warning signs will be set into four lights,they are the green light,the yellow light,the orange light and the red light,these four lights respectively stand four kinds of early warning results,they are no alarm,I level warning,II level warning and III level warning.(4).Model evaluation and prediction.First of all,we use the actual data of Taizhou in the past two years,the energy efficiency monitoring and early warning model is evaluated.Secondly,we use the powerful function of “one library and three centers” for data prediction,combined with the early warning model and the evaluation model to calculate the comprehensive score of the monitoring index of the next 3 months,in order to get the specific signal model.Finally,by using the obtained signal lamp model and the individual score of each index of each month,the future energy efficiency crisis can be reminded,so as to prevent future problems.