The Deviation Between Residents’ Subjective Feelings And The CPI Statistics

The consumer price index is a measure of changes in the price of goods and services over time. CPI is an important index of macro economic analysis and regulation,monitoring of the general price level and national economic accounting. To a certain extent, its rate of change reflects the degree of inflation or deflation. In recent years, because of the rising price, the living pressure of ordinary residents becomes heavier, and there is a deviation between the CPI released bv Bureau of Statistics and the subjective feelings of the residents, so that the residents doubt Bureau of Statistics. The per capita disposable income has been "thrown off" CPI, however, the National Bureau of Statistics shows that CPI rose much lower than the per capita disposable income rose.The main reason for this phenomenon is the CPI of flaws, or the national bureau of statistics has not publicly CPI compilation process making the public misunderstood the real meaning of the CPI? In the final analysis people feel far from CPI data, the limitation of statistical sample and statistical weight lag make the CPI distorted, so that the establishment of CPI can neither reflect the purchasing power of the public, norther can measure our macro economy operation. And distortion of the CPI data not only weakens the public trust in government, and not conducive to the government to monitor and implement macro-control on inflation. Therefore, to improve the CPI, making it more authority and guidance.This paper attempts to test the inconsistent between subjective feelings of the public and the CPI the Bureau of Statistics released. Because food is closely related to the public’s daily life, rising food prices has always been the main driving force and reason to promote the CPI to rise, and the data acquisition is limited, so this article only tests the price index of food category. This paper survey jinan a chain supermarket a total of45months of16kinds of class of136monthly price of food in2009.1-2012.12in the way of field investigation, getting basic classification of price index after processing, according to the national bureau of statistics establishment of price index method to calculate the index in the class, and then use two kinds of methods as the equal weight and variable weight to get food price index. Equal right is to give16classes the same weight, and according to China statistical yearbook, the weight of variable weight is the proportion of various classes in per capita annual cash consumption expenditure accounted for food per capita annual cash consumption expenditure, so the food price index calculating by the variable weight represents people’s subjective feeling.Compared food price index calculated in this paper with index released by the national bureau of statistics, we found that the change trend is highly consistent, but calculated index is significantly higher than food price index released by the bureau of statistics. It shows the current establishment of CPI exists deficiency. We should combines the actual conditions of our country present stage of economic development and residents’ consumption structure to make reasonable measures to improve establishment of the CPI and to control prices.