Simulation Study On The Influence Of China’s Housing Security Level On Engel’s Coefficient

With the reform of the distribution system in the housing market,the rapid development of commercial housing in China’s real estate market has led to a sharp rise in the price of housing,resulting in a variety of social problems such as housing difficulties and consumption structure deformities of low-income groups in China.However,the rise of housing prices has triggered the exploration of indemnificatory housing in China,which has made the housing welfare policy in China continuously perfect,the development of indemnificatory housing steadily advanced,and the level of housing security continues to increase.In the past decade,China has invested nearly 15 trillion yuan and built more than 59 million affordable housing units.The implementation of housing security policy affects the consumption behavior of Chinese residents,including the changes in consumption level and consumption structure.Engel coefficient is an important indicator in the consumption field to measure the living standard of Chinese residents.The change of consumption structure under the influence of housing security policy will also cause the change of Engel coefficient.Based on the discussion of the impact of housing security level on Engel’s coefficient,this paper establishes the boundary of the research system by consulting a large number of relevant documents on housing security level and Engel’s coefficient,and uses the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,based on the theory of cointegration test and Granger causality test,and uses Eviews software to analyze the causal relationship and regression relationship between various economic indicators in the established system.Based on the above quantitative analysis results,combined with economic principles,the feedback loop diagram is established by using the system dynamics software Vensim5.6 to preliminarily analyze the transmission path of the impact of housing security level on Engel’s coefficient,that is,the impact of housing security level on Engel’s coefficient through residents’ consumption expenditure.Furthermore,based on the quantitative analysis results of various economic variables and the basic flow rate into the tree modeling principle,four basic flow rate into the tree are established,and the SD model of the impact of housing security level on Engel’s coefficient is established through embedding operation.According to the simulation prediction of SD model,the housing security level will show a fluctuating upward trend from 2020 to 2030,while Engel’s coefficient dropped steadily.In order to further explore the impact of housing security level on Engel’s coefficient,this paper introduces the capital regulation factor R1 and the land policy regulation factor R2 to carry out policy simulation experiments on the established model.The results show that the greater the change of housing security level,the greater the decline of Engel’s coefficient,which further confirms that the improvement of housing security level directly affects housing consumption expenditure and consumption structure,Its economic significance lies in solving the housing problem for the economically disadvantaged groups,reducing the burden of buying houses for the economically disadvantaged groups,releasing the consumption power,and using the current savings for housing consumption and other aspects of consumption expenditure,thus reducing the Engel coefficient,reflecting the general trend of residents’ consumption upgrading.