| Currently, as the global economic competition, China’s economic growth mode change, economic growth led by the labor-intensive industries change to capital and technology intensive industries. The industrial structure will be to high technology, high value-added, high promotion services. Upgrade of industrial structure need to have a stable macroeconomic environment, needs more fiscal and monetary means of guidance. Appropriate fiscal and monetary policy can implement effective tools to penetrate into the whole process of industrial development, inspire factors of production flow, close down backward production facilities, optimize elements in the configuration of the relationship between different industries and so as to realize the industrial structure upgrade. Fiscal and monetary policy guidance in place, whether there is a lack of and deficiencies, has a very important role in reality to our country industrial structure adjustment. Specifically, there are differences under the background of regional economic development in China, the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade progress also differ. Upgrading of industrial structure in the underdeveloped areas such as the central and western areas is relatively lag, so, it is necessary to research areas fiscal and monetary policy’s impact on industrial structure upgrade.Accordingly, in this paper, based on carding domestic and foreign related literature, it fully absorb the endogenous economic growth theory, public finance theory, theory of financial development and industrial structure theory, tries to lay a solid theoretical basis for study of this. And it then explores the influence of the fiscal expenditure policy, tax policy, credit policy, interest rate policy and exchange rate policy and other various fiscal and financial policy on the industrial structure upgrade mechanism, clear the transmission mechanism between them. At the same time it study the overall impact of fiscal and monetary policy on the upgrade of industry structure using the provincial panel data from1995-2010with the empirical method, then analyze the stage effect with the cut-off point of the time of the entry into WTO and the area effect using the eastern, central and western data.The conclusions are:(1)since1995, fiscal and monetary policy’s impact on industrial structure upgrade is good. In the long run, China’s fiscal and monetary policy has significant positive effect on industry structure upgrade. Increase of national financial revenue and expenditure, expansion of credit scale of exogenous or endogenous financial institutions effectively promote the development of the tertiary industry, high-tech industries and further evolution of industrial structure.(2)The effect of fiscal and monetary policy’s influence on the industrial structure upgrading exists time differences. After joining the WTO, due to the increase fiscal spending, the effect of fiscal spending on new and high technology industries change into positive one. Which shows that the Chinese government step up spending on research and development of high and new technology to transform traditional industries and improve the level of its production technology to improve the market competitiveness. What is more? The effect of state-owned bank credit to accession of the third industry is not obvious before joining the WTO. And after then, it raise its capital allocation efficiency, deepen the financial structure, the positive effect is gradually revealed.(3)The effect of fiscal and monetary policy’s influence on the industrial structure upgrading exists region differences. For the development of the tertiary industry, there is phenomenon of "central sunken", the tax advantage is not obvious, the state-owned bank credit has a crowding out effect. For new and high technology industries, the effect in the central and western is large and non-state bank loans show little obvious role in a relatively weak regions. But on the whole, fiscal policy, financial policy variables are characterized by positive effect, and the western region is relatively lack of fiscal expenditure. Endogenous, exogenous finance on promoting industrial structure upgrade are valid.(4) In the aspect of control variables, human capital factors on the promoting role of the tertiary industry is not obvious, and show significant effect on the high and new technology industry. Especially human capital factor in relatively backward western region relatively lack. Because the export sector mainly are labor-intensive industries, the expansion of exports advantageously to the development of the third industry. And due to the industry protection policy barriers, the effect of export factor on high and new technology industry is not obvious. But on the whole, it is help to the industrial structure upgrade, benefit to the improvement of industrialization. Foreign direct investment to upgrade industrial structure basically show a positive effect, and the effect in the eastern is biggest, one in the central is second, and one in the western is least. And the effect of investment in fixed assets at the same time is not obvious.Based on the above conclusions, the thesis puts forward the corresponding suggestions:(1)perfect the fiscal and tax policies, comprehensively promote the upgrading of industrial structure, including continuing to consolidate the existing fiscal policy, vigorously expanding other fiscal and tax policies.(2)optimize the financial policy tool, promote industrial structure optimization, including increasing credit investment, clearing credit support, optimizing the structure of banking industry and developing the direct financial, introducing risk investment system, strengthening financial deepening.(3)alleviate the phenomenon of "central sunken" and promote balanced development of the third industrial between the regions.(4)strengthen fiscal and financial investment and promote the comprehensive upgrade of high-tech industries.(5)adjust industrial policies, guide rational resources flow to high technology and cleaning industry. |
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