| According to China’s national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China has entered the stage ofthe strategic adjustment of economic structure.To speed up the development of new industries, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has become the key to promote China’s sustained and healthy economic development. In1997May. since the founding of credit management of PBC, the status of the credit market in financial system is higher than that of the capital market, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through credit channel plays a important role. Bank credit has become the main factors affecting the adjustment of economic structure in influence of China’s savings into investment to promote economic growth. In2013the "monetary policy and financial reform" press conference, the PBC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan highlighted in this tightening of monetary policy proposed to maintain the growth in bank credit. It is not difficult to see the importance of credit resources allocation to the economic development and industrial structure. In this study, the relation of allocation of credit resources and industrial structure is the research object. In the literature review on the basis ofthe study on the credit resource allocation and industrial structure is few, at the same time in the empirical research method, there is no use panel model to study it, so this study has a certain theoretical and practical significance.This paper first constructs a theory analysis framework of credit resources allocation to industrial structure affects, then, on the basis ofthe theoretical framework, statistical analysis of the credit resource allocation and industrial structure, based on a comprehensive grasp of China’s credit resources allocation and the industrial structure trend, related data from the30national provincial panel model, analysis the difference of industrial structure affects of the eastern, central, West and Northeast regional allocation of credit, and different stages affect before and after the establishment of credit management of PBC division in1997. The results show that, the regional credit allocation structure is different, the regional industrial structure rationalization and advanced degree is different, different allocation of credit resources to different rationalization of industrial structure effect, different allocation of credit resources to different advanced industrial structure effect, the allocation of credit resources of different combined effect on the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure. Finally, this paper proposes some suggestions. A. Research conclusionsa. Different regional allocation of credit structure in different level. The conclusion of comparison between China’s four regions, eastern region, central region, western region and northeast region, of credit resources allocation static and dynamic analysis show that:differences between credit resources in agricultural loans, industrial loans and commercial loans allocation proportion of industry are shrinking, but the configuration structure of eastern region, central region, western region and northeast region, there are significant differences. The proportion of agricultural loans in total loans relative to the proportion of industrial loans and commercial loans have been low, and the western area and the central area of agricultural loans in the proportion of the national average level, the proportion of agricultural loans in the eastern region and the northeast region is relatively low; Industrial loans in total loans accounted for the highest area is northeast area, followed by the central region, the eastern and the western, and the average difference between eastern, central, western is not great; Commercial loans to the total loans in the highest proportion of the region is still the northeast region, followed by the east, the west and the central, and the average difference between eastern and western is not great.b. Different regional of industrial structure rationalization and advanced in different level. The conclusion of comparison between China’s four regions, eastern region, central region, western region and northeast region, of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure static and dynamic analysis show that:The eastern and the northeastern of rationalization index is low, the rationalization index significantly higher in the western industrial structure, that mesns the eastern and the northeastern of industrial structure is relatively reasonable, and the industrial structure of the western is relatively not very reasonable; Industrial structure of the eastern region advanced index is relatively high, the industrial structure of the northeastern advanced indexes were significantly lower, that means the industrial structure ofthe eastern is relatively high, and the degree of high-level industrial structure ofthe northeastern is lower; Accroding to rationalization index and advanced index, the eastern is above the average level in china.c. Different allocation of credit resources to different effect in rationalization of industrial structure. The results of the regression effect of China’s credit resources allocation rationalization of the influence on the industrial structure show that:Loans accounted for the proportion of the deposit can be improved to promote the rationalization of the industrial structure, increase the proportion of loans for deposit1%quantitative indicators can optimize the industrial structure rationalization in0.09%degree; The increase of agricultural loans proportion can promote the rationalization of industrial structure reasonable, increase the proportion of agricultural loans1%quantitative indicators can optimize the industrial structure rationalization in the extent of0.19%; Industrial loans increase, also can promote the rationalization of industrial structure reasonable, industrial loans increase the proportion of1%quantitative indexes can optimize the industrial structure rationalization in the extent of0.26%; Commercial loans increased, in the absence of the control variables, is not significant to industrial structure rationalization effect, in the introduction of control variables in the case is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure, increase the proportion of commercial loans1%quantitative indicators of weakening the industrial structure in0.15%degree.d. Different allocation of credit resources to different effect in optimization of industrial structure. The results of the regression effect of China’s credit resource allocation to the upgrading of the industrial structure show that:Loans accounted for the proportion of deposits increased to promote upgrading of the industrial structure, increase the proportion of loans for deposit1%quantitative indicators can optimize the advanced industrial structure in0.1%degree; The proportion of agricultural loans increased, leads to the advanced industrial structure exponential decline, caused industrial structure level degradation, the proportion of agricultural loans increased1%quantitative indexes can weaken the high level of industrial structure in1.46%degree; Industrial loans increasing, also makes the advanced industrial structure index decreased, resulting in the industrial structure level degradation, industrial loans increase the proportion of1%quantitative indexes can weaken the advanced industrial structure in0.93%degree; Commercial loans increasing, can makes the advanced industrial structure index rose and promote upgrading of the industrial structure, improve the business loans1%quantitative indicators can optimize the industrial structure upgrading in the extent of0.11%.e. Different allocation of credit resources to different combined effect on the industrial structure rationalization and optimization. The regression coefficient affects of our country between credit resources allocation and industrial structure rationalization and optimization show that:Loans to deposits increase the proportion of1%to promote the rationalization of industrial structure in the0.09%level, and promote the upgrading of the industrial structure at the0.1%level; The proportion of agricultural loans increased1%to promote the rationalization of industrial structure in the0.19%level, and advanced industrial structure is weak at the1.46%level, the effect of agricultural credit to the advanced industrial structure is larger than the effect of the rationalization of industrial structure; The proportion of industrial loans increased1%to promote the rationalization of industrial structure and the weakening of high-level industrial structure at the0.93%level and the0.26%level, the effect of industrial loans to the upgrading of the industrial structure is significantly greater than the effect of the rationalization of industrial structure; The proportion of commercial loans increased significantly weakens the rationalization of industrial structure, yet, improved the high-level industrial structure.B. Policy Recommendationsa. Stage of credit policy. The industrial structure characteristics of our country show that our country is still in the process of industrialization stage, coordinated development focus is still on the urbanization, industrialization and mechanization. At this stage of our country, based on the rationalization of industrial structure, gradually realize the advanced industrial structure through the development of high-tech industry in our country. The first stage, the allocation of credit resources should focus on the rationalization of industrial structure. Increase the proportion of agricultural loans and industrial loans although could promote the rationalization of the industrial structure, improve industrial loans but rationalization of industrial structure effect is more significant, from the angle of the contribution rate of increase industrial loan effect was stronger in improving agricultural loan effect. In this stage, the direction of China’s credit policy is appropriate to industrial loans; The second stage, the allocation of credit resources to promote the upgrading industrial structure. To improve the commercial loans, reducing the proportion of agricultural and industrial loans can promote the advance of industrial structure, from the angle of the contribution rate of lower agricultural loans effect was stronger than reducing industrial loan effect. In this stage, the direction of China’s credit policy can be inclined to commercial loans, while reducing agricultural loans.b. Regional credit policy. Compared with static allocation of credit resources and regional industrial structure status, the rationalization degree of industrial structure in the Northeastern is high, the western industrial structure rationalization degree is minimum, China needs to implement the western industrial structure rationalization as the primary goal of the rationalization of industrial structure in the process of implementation, in promoting the credit resource allocation scheme rationalization of industrial structure in western region can be achieved by increasing the proportion of commercial loans in the loan; The eastern advanced industrial structure is in higher degree, the northeastern advanced industrial structure of our country is in the lowest level, industrial process is required in order to achieve industrial structure of the northeast as the primary goal, in the promotion of credit resource allocation scheme in the northeast of upgrading the industrial structure can be achieved by properly reducing agricultural and industrial loans in the proportion of loans, and reduce the proportion of agricultural loans in the loan is more obvious than reducing the proportion of loans in the industry.c. The coordination of credit policy and industrial policy. According to the outline for the development of our national industry, coordinate credit policy, through the choice of credit resources to support the focus, to promote the adjustment of industrial structure. Issued in2011March of the people’s Republic of China Development and Reform Commission, in order to speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development, promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, improve and develop a modern industrial system, with the relevant departments of the State Council on the "adjustment of industrial structure to guide catalog (2005version)" was revised, formed the "catalogue for the guidance of industrial structure adjustment (2011version)", directory of agriculture, water conservancy, coal, electric power, new energy, nuclear energy, oil and gas, steel, nonferrous metals, gold, building materials, petrochemical, pharmaceutical, machinery, urban rail transportation equipment, ship, aviation, light industry, textile, building, city infrastructure, railway, highway the road transport, water transport, air transport, transportation, information industry, modern logistics, financial services, technology services, business services, tourism, culture, education, health sports service industry, service industry, environmental protection and resource conservation and comprehensive utilization, public safety and emergency products, civil explosive products, some forty major projects under the encouraged, restricted and eliminated.d. To promote the efficiency use of credit funds. Aiming at the low efficiency problem caused by the use of government credit funds, allocate the proportion of credit resources rationally in the state-owned enterprises, reduce idle phenomenon; The problem of low efficiency caused by the use of financial institutions in credit funds, corporate governance structure optimization of banks, strengthen the independence of banks and enterprises, adjust the credit orientation, change from the extensive the number of loans to the connotation and quality type of loan; The problem of low efficiency caused by the use of the production sector credit funds of investment mechanism, the enterprises should establish self-restraint, while ensuring coordination between the upstream and downstream industry chain, to achieve economic scale. |
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