Evaluation Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In The Area Around The Guangxi Daming Mountain

Nowadays, sustainable development has become the inevitable choice of human survival and development, and ecological carrying capacity has been one of the core of measurement and evaluation studies for the sustainable development. Under the background of promoting construction and development of Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, this study provides decision basis for improving the ecological carrying situation and promotes sustainable development by the evaluation study of ecological carrying capacity of typical natural ecosystem. It gets space based data by using RS and GIS technology, evaluates and analysis ecological carrying capacity of the area around Daming Mountain by using state-space method in2005-2010years, predicates the regional ecological carrying capacity by using Grey forecasting model in2015year, analyzes dynamic changes and influential factors of ecological carrying capacity, and put forward the countermeasure and measure which aim at promoting regional sustainable development and enhancing ecological carrying capacity. The main results are as follows:1. In2005～2010year, the change of the resource environmental carrying capacity of the area around Daming Mountain is relatively stable, it is in the "Full Load" state. The ecological elastic force maintaining "Can Load" state, it is surplus and keeps this state well. The human society influence is in the "Overload" state. The impact of human society activities on ecosystem is not enough, based on the hard word for environmental protecting, it reduces the pressure of ecosystem gradually. The ecological carrying capacity is increasing continually, it has increased to the "Full Load" state and shows that the region ecological carrying capacity is surplus, and development is sustainable. 2. According to the state of ecological carrying capacity of the area around Daming Mountain, this study predicts the ecological carrying capacity by using grey prediction model in2015year, and analyze its spatial differentiation situation. The result is that:the ecological carrying capacity of the area around Daming Mountain is in "Full Load" state situation in2015year. Due to the human society influence increase to higher grade, theregional ecological carrying capacity has a greatly rising. It reflected that human society influence promoting the ecological carrying capacity development.3. Compared with2010year, the situation of spatial variation of regional ecological carrying capacity in2015year showed as follows:Mashan County maintains "Overload" state; Shanglin County increases to "Full Load" state; Binyang County and Wuming County increase to "Can Load" and have a large rangeability and a quick development, human activities and ecological system is developing harmoniously4. The regional ecological carrying capacity is affected by agriculture output value, water area per capita, forest land area per capita, the average PM10annual concentration, annual forestation area, water area ratio and so on.5. The measure for increasing ecological carrying capacity of the area around Daming Mountain and promoting sustainable development showed as follows:strengthening the ecological construction in Shanglin and Mashan, which including of treatment of desertification, recovering vegetation cover, water conservation and biodiversity conservation; strengthening the agriculture comprehensive production capacity to promote sustainable development in Wuming and Binyang.