Study On The Risk Assessment Methods Of Water Resources Shortage Of Tianjin In The Concept Of Recycling Economy

With the rapid development of the city, large amount of water resources isdemanded. As the concept of sustainable development is accepted by more and morepeople, the idea of building a recycling and water-saving society began to spring up.Tianjin, a resources water scarcity city, relies on diverted water to a great extend,which means water shortage risk will have a wide-ranging impact. To assess the watershortage risk of Tianjin properly in the consideration of recycling economydevelopment is important for industrial restructuring and hydraulic engineeringplanning.It’s difficult to evaluate water shortage risk as study on recycling economy is stilldeveloping and there are complicated factors and uncertainty in water resources.Hence the water resources supply and demand in Tianjin using the basic concept ofrecycling economy theory in city water-saving was mainly discussed in this thesis. Afuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on the maximum entropy principle wasestablished to evaluate the water shortage risk level of Tianjin, for it allows people totake various factors into consideration and evaluation indexes are objectively andscientifically. Main work goes as follows:First of all, an overview of recycling economy and water resources shortageassessment research in home and abroad were introduced. The recycling economydeveloping tendency and the shortcoming of current water resources shortageevaluation research were summarized. Following, the tendency of recycling economytheory research as well as the evaluation index including its weights were analyzed,considering current achievements. Taking Tianjin as a real case, water resourcessupply and demand were indicated and analyzed in two situations, namely traditionaldeveloping mode and new developing mode in the viewpoint of recycling economy.Secondly, some evaluation indexes were chosen and a water resources shortagerisk fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of Tianjin was developed, after trade-offanalyzing some statistical indicators. The maximum entropy principle was used in themodel for the above-mentioned reasons. In the end, water shortage risk level ofTianjin in2020and2030reference year was evaluated and some suggestions wereprovided. Evaluation results showed that, the fuzzy comprehensive assessment modelbased on the maximum entropy principle was effective in evaluating the watershortage level of Tianjin. And the water shortage risk of Tianjin was at a high level,which would not be better in the later twenty years. It would mitigate the risk bybuilding a recycling and water-saving society, but the risk level would not be lower.Striving to develop recycling economy, to transfer water inter-basin, to save water, tolook for unconventional water resources, and to optimize the water resourcesallocation would be a long-term work in Tianjin’s city development.