The Shortage Of Water Resources Supply And Demand Balance Analysis And Risk Assessment In Dalian

Progress and economic development is inseparable from the water of city,which makes the demand of water resources is increasing,and emerged a lot of urban water shortage,lead to the contradiction between supply and demand of water gradually deepened,It’s also a cause of water shortage risk,so the construction of water-saving society is imperative.Dalian is a coastal city,but less per capital water resources,belongs to the serious water shortage city,so the balance of supply and demand of water resources in Dalian were analyzed.Water general includes life water demand,the three most agricultural water and industrial water demand.In this paper,combined with the natural condition in Dalian,many aspects,such as water index analysis of the calendar year.Research methods at home and abroad for reference,the norm analysis and trend prediction method is used respectively to Dalian city life,agricultural and industrial water demand prediction for analysis.With integrated water consumption per capital as the forecasting parameters,using the exponential smoothing method to forecast,according to population quota method to forecast the water demand prediction in life in Dalian;With industrial production as the forecasting parameters,using the exponential function prediction method to predict,then according to the industrial water demand is equal to the industrial production and the product of ten thousand yuan of industrial water demand forecast to predict industrial water requirement in Dalian;In agricultural irrigation water consumption must to predict parameters of the exponential smoothing method is adopted to predict,then according to the quota method to forecast the water demand prediction in agriculture life in Dalian.The results obtained for the total 2020 Dalian 23.07 billion cubic meters of water,the amount of 22.87 billion cubic meters of water,in 2030 the total amount of 43.83 billion cubic meters of water,the amount of 37.97 billion cubic meters of water.Predicting the Dalian city in 2020 will be 0.2 million cubic meters of water in 2030 will be 5.86 million cubic meters of water.As can be seen in Dalian future water supply cannot meet the water demand and water shortage risk will happen.In measure various statistical indicators,on the basis of selecting representative evaluation index,this article selects precipitation,surface water resources,groundwater resources,agricultural water,industrial water consumption,the third industry and domestic water,output value of ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption,sewage,urban per capital disposal income and per capital gross domestic product(GDP)the 10 indicators.Disaster in reference to the principle of division of the level of risk,then risk level is divided into live levels,respectively,for high risk,high risk,medium risk,low risk,low risk.The entropy weight method and the combination of the triangular fuzzy method to calculate each index weight,finally,the fuzzy matter element model was used to evaluate the risk of water shortage in Dalian city from 2001 to 2012.The results of the study show that Dalian city 2001,2002,2003,2006 and 2009 for higher risk;2004,2005,2007,2008,2010,2011 and 2012 as medium risk.From this we can see that water shortage risk in Dalian at a higher level.According to the above evaluation results,this article suggested to control the situation of the water resources in Dalian,inhibiting water demand inflation,increasing the development degree of water resources,improving water,gray water utilization,the construction of water diversion engineering and reservoir engineering,solving the problem of water shortages in Dalian.