Water Shortage Risk Analysis Of Pingxiang City

With the development of economic and social development and urbanization, the demand of water resources are also gradually increased. Increasingly prominent imbalance between supply and demand of water resources, water resources shortage has become the key problems restricting the development of Pingxiang. In Pingxiang water shortage risk analysis, and formulate the corresponding water shortage risk handling and risk control measures, in order to solve or reduce the shortage of water resource in Pingxiang to social stability and economic development.This article first to Pingxiang is analyzed respectively in every level in water supply and water demand prediction, coupled with Mike Basin model for water resources supply and demand balance analysis of Pingxiang. In the aspect of evaluation method, select the more objective and more accord with the actual fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and BP neural network, and in the choice risk performance index and index weight calculation method on the objective and scientific, at last gives a reasonable response.The main work is as follows:First of all, Combined with the domestic and foreign research results, on the basis of the selection of risk evaluation method, the performance index selection and the determination of index weight method has carried on the comparative analysis.Finally in pingxiang, for example, the 2020 and 2030, the balance of supply and demand of water resources in planning level years is forecasted.Then, according to the situation of water resources and water resources supply and demand balance analysis results accord with the actual situation of Pingxiang risk performance indexes, and built Pingxiang water shortage risk of BP neural network and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water shortage risk evaluation of two kinds of model.Finally, according to the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water shortages in Pingxiang, for 2020 and 2030, water resources shortage in planning level years is analyzed, and gives the reasonable water resources shortage risk response and control measures.Predictive results of the two kinds of water shortage risk evaluation model can well reflect the problem of water shortages in pingxiang.Water shortage risk of Pingxiang is at a higher level, especially one source area is in a state of water resources shortage risk for a long time, and under the present situation of regulation and control measures and engineering measures of Pingxiang water shortages cannot be improved. Only efforts to implement sustainable development strategy,establishing economy and circular society, implement cross-regional, inter-basin water transfer can effectively alleviate the problem of water shortage of Pingxiang.